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AbstractPurpose -Assembly variations, which will propagate along the assembly process, are inevitable and difficult to analyze in Aeronautical Thin-Walled Structures (ATWS) assembly. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for analyzing the variation propagation of ATWS with automated riveting. Design/methodology/approach -The paper addresses the variation propagation model and method by first, forming a novel Stage-State model to represent the process of automated riveting. Second, the effect of positioning error on assembly variation is defined as propagation variation (PV), and propagation matrix of key characteristic points (KCP) is discussed. Third, the effect between the variations in each stage is defined as expansion variation (EV). According to the analysis of mismatch error and the reference transformation, the expansion matrix is formed. Findings -The model can solve the variation propagation problem of ATWS with automated riveting efficiently, which is shown as an example of this paper. Practical implications -The variation obtained by the model and method presented in this paper is in conformity with the variation measured in experiments. Originality/value -The propagation variation and expansion variation is proposed for the first time, and variations are studied according to novel propagation matrix and expansion matrix.