A Habitable Zone Census via Transit Timing and the Imperative for Continuing to Observe the Kepler Field

Fabrycky, Daniel C.; Payne, Matthew; Steffen, Jason H.; Ragozzine, Darin; Mazeh, T.; Lissauer, Jack J.; Welsh, William J.

doi:10.48550/arxiv.1309.1177

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Bouma et al (2017) consider the possibility of TESS extended missions and find a trade-off between extending data coverage of stars observed in the main mission and observing new fields. Longer observations of known planets enable significantly improved TTV analyses, supporting plans to obtain continuing data (see also Fabrycky et al 2013).…”

Section: Implications For Tessmentioning

confidence: 73%

Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

Kane¹,

Ragozzine

Flowers³

et al. 2019

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We visually analyzed the transit timing variation (TTV) data of 5930 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) homogeneously. Using data from Rowe et al. (2014) andHolczer et al. (2016), we investigated TTVs for ∼all KOIs in Kepler's Data Release 24 catalog. Using TTV plots, periodograms, and folded quadratic+sinusoid fits, we visually rated each KOI's TTV data in five categories. Our ratings emphasize the hundreds of planets with TTVs that are weaker than the ∼200 that have been studied in detail. Our findings are consistent with statistical methods for identifying strong TTVs (Holczer et al. 2016), though we found some additional systems worth investigation. Between about 3-50 days and 1.3-6 Earth radii, the frequency of strong TTVs increases with period and radius. As expected, strong TTVs are very common when period ratios are near a resonance, but there is not a one-to-one correspondence. The observed planet-by-planet frequency of strong TTVs is only somewhat lower in systems with 1-2 known planets (7 ± 1 %) than in systems with 3+ known planets (11 ± 2 %). We attribute TTVs to known planets in multi-transiting systems, but find ∼30 cases where the perturbing planet is unknown. Our conclusions are valuable as an ensemble for learning about planetary system architectures and individually as stepping stones towards more detailed mass-radius constraints. We also discuss Data Release 25 TTVs, ∼100 KOIs with Transit Duration and/or Depth Variations, and that the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will likely find only ∼10 planets with strong TTVs.

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Section: Implications For Tessmentioning

confidence: 73%

Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

Kane¹,

Ragozzine

Flowers³

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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“…TTVs occur in multi-planet systems due to gravitational interactions between planets and can be visible in transit timing data since they force planets off of a strictly Keplerian orbit. TTVs can be used to not only confirm planetary systems but also to measure system mass ratios and orbital parameters (Fabrycky et al 2013;Huber et al 2013;Nespral et al 2017). Furthermore, TTVs allow us to significantly improve our characterization of planetary systems by deriving the physical parameters of the systems, such as the star/planets' absolute mass, eccentricity, and inclinations, especially when combined with other data (Agol et al 2005;Montet & Johnson 2013;Almenara et al 2018).…”

Section: To Teach Usmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the mass measurements from TTV signals strongly depend on orbital parameters such as period ratio and eccentricity and since for many systems we do not have enough data from Kepler to measure these precisely (Fabrycky et al 2013), we have either large uncertainties or only upper limits in mass measurements (Nesvorný et al 2012). Additionally, many TTVs are still degenerate after four years since the period of many TTV systems are comparable in length or longer than the Kepler observing baseline (Holczer et al 2016;Mazeh et al 2013).…”

Section: To Teach Usmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations of the Kepler Field with TESS: Predictions for Planet Yield and Observable Features

Christ

Montet

Fabrycky

2019

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We examine the ability of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect and improve our understanding of planetary systems in the Kepler field. By modeling the expected transits of all confirmed and candidate planets detected by Kepler as expected to be observed by TESS, we provide a probabilistic forecast of the detection of each Kepler planet in TESS data. We find that TESS has a greater than 50% chance of detecting 260 of these planets at the 3σ level in one sector of observations and an additional 120 planets in two sectors. Most of these are large planets in short orbits around their host stars, although a small number of rocky planets are expected to be recovered. Most of these systems have only one known transiting planet; in only ∼ 5 percent of known multiply-transiting systems do we anticipate more than one planet to be recovered. When these planets are recovered, we expect TESS to be a powerful tool to characterizing transit timing variations. Using Kepler-88 (KOI-142) as an example, we show that TESS will improve measurements of planet-star mass ratios and orbital parameters, and significantly reduce the transit timing uncertainty in future years. Since TESS will be most sensitive to hot Jupiters, we research whether TESS will be able to detect tidal orbital decay in these systems. We find two confirmed planetary systems (Kepler-2 b and Kepler-13 b) and five candidate systems that will be good candidates to detect tidal decay.

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A Habitable Zone Census via Transit Timing and the Imperative for Continuing to Observe the Kepler Field

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

Observations of the Kepler Field with TESS: Predictions for Planet Yield and Observable Features

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