A high-precision interpretable framework for marine dissolved oxygen concentration inversion

Abstract

Variations in Marine Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations (MDOC) play a critical role in the study of marine ecosystems and global climate evolution. Although artificial intelligence methods, represented by deep learning, can enhance the precision of MDOC inversion, the uninterpretability of the operational mechanism involved in the “black-box” often make the process difficult to interpret. To address this issue, this paper proposes a high-precision interpretable framework (CDRP) for intelligent MDOC inversion, including Causal Discovery, Drift Detection, RuleFit Model, and Post Hoc Analysis. The entire process of the proposed framework is fully interpretable: (i) The causal relationships between various elements are further clarified. (ii) During the phase of concept drift analysis, the potential factors contributing to changes in marine data are extracted. (iii) The operational rules of RuleFit ensure computational transparency. (iv) Post hoc analysis provides a quantitative interpretation from both global and local perspectives. Furthermore, we have derived quantitative conclusions about the impacts of various marine elements, and our analysis maintains consistency with conclusions in marine literature on MDOC. Meanwhile, CDRP also ensures the precision of MDOC inversion: (i) PCMCI causal discovery eliminates the interference of weakly associated elements. (ii) Concept drift detection takes more representative key frames. (iii) RuleFit achieves higher precision than other models. Experiments demonstrate that CDRP has reached the optimal level in single point buoy data inversion task. Overall, CDRP can enhance the interpretability of the intelligent MDOC inversion process while ensuring high precision.