A historical, geographical and ecological perspective on the 2018 European summer drought

Peters, Wouter; Bastos, Ana; Ciais, Philippe; Vermeulen, Alex

doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0505

Cited by 121 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…2 and 3 can be observed. In those study sites, the temporal evolution of the droughts appears to be well reproduced by both versions of the indicator, with the start, peak, and end dates consistent with the scientific literature for the events (Buras et al, 2020;Ciais et al, 2005;Hanel et al, 2018;Rebetez et al, 2006).…”

Section: Temporal Consistency Of Drought Stagessupporting

confidence: 75%

“…Several drought events of different extents and severities were observed during the reference period, including the three large-scale and renowned events of 2003 in central Europe (Rebetez et al, 2006(Rebetez et al, ), 2005 in Iberia Peninsula (Garcia-Herrera et al, 2007), and 2018 in northern Europe (Buras et al, 2020). Other documented events at national or regional scales include the droughts in Italy and Romania in 2007, western Germany and France in 2011, Romania and Portugal in 2012, eastern Spain in 2014, eastern France and western Germany in 2015, and central Italy in 2017.…”

Section: Past Drought Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)

Cammalleri

Arias-Muñoz

Barbosa

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European Commission's European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index. The CDI conceptualizes drought as a cascade process, where a precipitation shortage (WATCH stage) develops into a soil water deficit (WARNING stage), which in turn leads to stress for vegetation (ALERT stage). The main goal of the revised CDI proposed here is to improve the indicator's performance for those events that are currently not reliably represented, without altering either the modelling conceptual framework or the required input datasets. This is achieved by means of two main modifications: (a) use of the previously occurring CDI value to improve the temporal consistency of the time series and (b) introduction of two temporary classes – namely TEMPORARY RECOVERY for soil moisture and vegetation greenness, respectively – to avoid brief discontinuities in a stage. The efficacy of the modifications is tested by comparing the performances of the revised and currently implemented versions of the indicator for actual drought events in Europe during the last 20 years. The revised CDI reliably reproduces the evolution of major droughts, outperforming the current version of the indicator, especially for long-lasting events, and reducing the overall temporal inconsistencies in stage sequencing of about 70 %. Since the revised CDI does not need supplementary input datasets, it is suitable for operational implementation within the EDO drought monitoring system.

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Section: Temporal Consistency Of Drought Stagessupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Past Drought Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)

Cammalleri

Arias-Muñoz

Barbosa

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…In contrast to previous measurements and model-based studies, however, we showed how MDF can quantify and interpret C dynamics across a large domain (GB) while also resolving sub-field scale variability in vegetation management. It is widely accepted that climate change is manifesting itself, among other ways, as more frequent droughts in northern Europe(Peters et al, 2020). Our study showed how the most prolonged drought (2018) that has been recorded since 2000 affected the C balance of managed grasslands.…”

mentioning

confidence: 55%

The carbon budget of the managed grasslands of Great Britain constrained by earth observations

Myrgiotis

Smallman

Williams

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Grasslands cover around two thirds of the land area of Great Britain (GB) and are important reservoirs of terrestrial biological carbon (C). Outside a few well-monitored sites the quantification of C dynamics in managed grasslands is made complex by the spatio-temporal variability of weather conditions combined with grazing and cutting patterns. Earth observation (EO) missions produce high-resolution frequently-retrieved proxy data on the state of grassland canopies but synergies between EO data and biogeochemical modelling to estimate grassland C dynamics are under-explored. Here, we show the potential of model-data fusion (MDF) to provide robust near-real time analyses of managed grasslands of GB (England, Wales andScotland). We combine EO data and process-based modelling to estimate grassland C balance and to examine the role of management. We implement a MDF algorithm to (1) infer grassland management from vegetation reduction data (Proba-V), (2) optimise model parameters by assimilating leaf area index (LAI) data (Sentinel-2) and (3) simulate livestock grazing, grass cutting, and C allocation and loss to the atmosphere. The MDF algorithm was applied for 2017 and 2018 at 1855 fields sampled from across GB. The algorithm was able to effectively assimilate the Sentinel-2 based LAI time series (overlap = 80 %, RMSE = 1 gCm−2, bias = 0.35 gCm−2) and predict livestock densities per area that correspond with independent census-based data (r = 0.68). The mean total removed biomass across all simulated fields was 6 (±1.8) tDM ha−1 y−1. The simulated grassland ecosystems were on average C sinks in 2017 and 2018; the GB-average net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome exchange (NBE) for 2017 was −232 ± 94 and for 2018 was −120 ± 103 gCm−2 y−1. The 2018 summer drought reduced C sinks, with a 9-fold increase in the number fields that were C sources (NBE > 0) in 2018 compared to 2017. We conclude that management in the form of sward condition and the timing, intensity and type of defoliation are key determinants of the C balance of managed grasslands. Nevertheless, extreme weather, such as prolonged droughts, can convert grassland C sinks to sources.

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“…The period of unusually hot weather between June and August 2018 saw temperatures well above average across the country, which led to the joint-warmest summer on record for the UK (alongside 1976, 2003 and 2006) and the warmest on record for England in series since 1884. These conditions were a result of continental drivers that had a similar effect across northern and central Europe (Peters et al, 2020). Under the influence of persistent highpressure systems due to a positive phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and a northward-shifted jet stream (McCarthy et al, 2019), June ranked as the fourth driest in the Climate Research Unit England and Wales Precipitation series (starting in 1766; Alexander & Jones, 2001).…”

Section: Heatwavementioning

confidence: 99%

The 2018/2019 drought in the UK: a hydrological appraisal

Turner

Barker

Hannaford

et al. 2021

Weather

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A historical, geographical and ecological perspective on the 2018 European summer drought

Cited by 121 publications

References 53 publications

A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)

A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)

The carbon budget of the managed grasslands of Great Britain constrained by earth observations

The 2018/2019 drought in the UK: a hydrological appraisal

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