A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Turchin, Peter; Witoszek, Nina; Thurner, Stefan; García, David; Griffin, Roger; Hoyer, Daniel; Midttun, Atle; Bennett, James; Næss, Knut Myrum; Gavrilets, Sergey

doi:10.21237/c7clio9242078

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The SDT is not merely a theory for understanding why internal violence outbreaks develop and spike. By providing us with the understanding of the deep structural causes of socio-political instability and societal breakdown, SDT also gives us tools for adopting the right set of reforms and policy interventions that can reverse these drivers of instability [3]. Table 1 Tokugawa Crisis in Japan XIX [4] Wars of the Roses in England XV [12] Late Medieval Crisis in France XIV-XV [12] Wars of Religion in France XVI [12] Time of Troubles in Russia XVII [12] Russian Revolution XX [12] Crisis of the Late Republic in Rome I BCE [12] Roman Principate Crisis III [12] Roman Dominate Crisis VI [25] American Civil War XIX [11] Contemporary American Crisis XXI [11] Chartist Crisis in Britain XIX [26] Contemporary UK Crisis XXI [2] Arab Spring in Egypt XXI [23] Overview of Crises in Medieval and Early Modern Egypt multiple [13] Overview of Crises in Ancient Societies multiple [27] Postscript…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

Turchin

Korotayev

2020

Preprint

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This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

Turchin

Korotayev

2020

Preprint

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Section: Crisis Time (Century) Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment

Turchin

Korotayev

2020

PLoS ONE

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This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structuraldemographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries.

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“…All organisations need to respond to these emergencies that threaten the long-term wellbeing of all people and planet, but the role of universities would seem to be especially crucial. After all, it was research from the global academic community that helped identify and track the decline in the planet's natural support systems (Rockström et al, 2009;Dearing et al, 2014) and continues to expose a pattern of severe social challenges which both affect and are affected by environmental system breakdown (Galbraith, 2007;Turchin et al, 2018). Building on that knowledge base, the higher education sector also offers the critical learning infrastructure to support society transition away from unsustainable practises (Tilbury, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-purposing Universities: The Path to Purpose

Hurth

Stewart

2022

Front. Sustain.

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As the extent of damage to environmental systems from our business-as-usual activity becomes ever more alarming, Universities as core social institutions are under pressure to help society lead the transition to a sustainable future. Their response to the issues, that they themselves have helped reveal, has, however, been widely criticised for being wholly inadequate. Universities can be observed to engage with sustainability issues in ad-hoc ways, with the scale of attention and commitment dependant mainly on the level of pressure exerted by stakeholders that works to overcome aspects of inherent inertia. Sustainability initiatives can therefore be regarded mainly as bolt-ons. This mirrors how other sectors, including businesses, have tended to respond. As the environmental and social crisis mounts and the window for adaptive change to ensure long-term wellbeing for all narrows, the pressure for deeper systemic change builds. It is in this context that transformation to a “purpose-driven organisation” has emerged as a systemic approach to change, enabling an organisation to align deeply and rapidly with society's long-term best interest and hence a sustainable future. Nowhere has this concept been taken forward more obviously than in the business sector. As business leadership towards purpose becomes more apparent, so the lack of action in this area by universities appears starker. In this paper we clarify what it means to be a purpose-driven organisation, why and how it represents a deep holistic response to unsustainability, and what core questions emerging from the business world university leaders can ask themselves to begin the practical journey to transform their institutions into purpose-driven universities.

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A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment

Re-purposing Universities: The Path to Purpose

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