A Holistic Approach to Family Life Course Change across 1930–1978 Chinese Birth Cohorts

Abstract

Family formation in China has undergone dramatic changes. Despite increasing academic attention, few studies have taken a holistic approach to study cohort change in Chinese family life courses. In this study, we assess how family life course patterns and diversity changed across 1930-1978 birth cohorts. Moreover, we evaluate to what extent changing norms, economic constraints, and institutional reforms drove cohort differences. Data from the China Family Panel Studies and sequence analysis are applied to identify family life course patterns and to calculate sequence diversity. While we found a shift in family life course patterns across 1930-1978 birth cohorts, there is no evidence that Chinese family lives have become more diverse. To the contrary, our results demonstrate that family life courses have become relatively standardized around relatively early marriage and a single child. We find that factors associated with economic constraints and educational attainment -not ideational change or institutional reforms -account for a considerable portion of cross-cohort variation in diversity of family life courses. Rather than a second demographic transition, the family demographic behavior of 1930-78 Chinese birth cohorts is marked by continuity despite change.

Diverse pathways from adolescence to early adulthood among China's rural youth: A new perspective

“…Similarly, by focusing only on youth life trajectories from ages 16-24, it may not capture the full trajectory of adulthood transitions that continue beyond the age of 24. However, in supporting our findings, a recent related study employing a broader age range and including birth cohorts before 1978 found that urban hukou origin was associated with less diverse life courses (Van Winkle and Wen, 2023). Future research could explore whether the rural-urban divide persists for more recent cohorts, like those we have considered in our study.…”

“…First, it reveals that China's post-1980s and post-1990s generations of rural youth experience more diverse or de-standardized pathways from adolescence to early adulthood compared to their urban counterparts. This study thus aligns with recent comparative literature to challenge the prevailing assumption that transition to adulthood pathways mimic the Western model: that is, the transition pathway becoming more diversified first in developed regions, a pattern which then spreads to developing regions driven by ideational changes (Van Winkle, 2018;Van Winkle and Wen, 2023). Instead, in the Chinese context, the de-standardization of rural youths' pathways to adulthood likely stems from a scarcity of resources in their families and communities, coupled with elevated economic uncertainties and institutional setting that divide the rural and urban population, rather than from ideational changes suggested by the second demographic transition theory.…”

“…Instead, in the Chinese context, the de-standardization of rural youths' pathways to adulthood likely stems from a scarcity of resources in their families and communities, coupled with elevated economic uncertainties and institutional setting that divide the rural and urban population, rather than from ideational changes suggested by the second demographic transition theory. A comparable observation was made by Van Winkle and Wen (2023). They identified educational attainment as a significant driver that explains a substantial portion of the differences life course transitions acrss Chinese birth cohorts from 1930 to 1978.…”

“…Much research has investigated changing dynamics in the transition to adulthood and family formation behaviors in this period, on a national scale and among the urban population (Cai and Feng, 2014;Qian and Qian, 2017;Tian, 2016;Yu and Xie, 2015). A common observation in the literature is that the urban population typically follows a trajectory marked by extended education, stable employment, and delayed marriage and childbearing (Van Winkle and Wen, 2023;Wang and Zhao, 2021;Yeung and Hu, 2013). In contrast, the rural population tends to follow a different trajectory characterized by lower levels of education, earlier entry into the workforce, and earlier marriage.…”