A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

Hirsch, Philipp; Sebastian, Schillinger; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt‐Holm, Patricia

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0114889

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Flow velocities are therefore unlikely to be lower at any other day of the year because, legally, the discharge must not decrease. Any increase in discharge will be directed through the turbines by the operator who aims to maximize energy production (Hirsch, Schillinger, Weigt, & Burkhardt-Holm, 2014;Peter, 2010).…”

Section: Step 1 221 | Model Parameterization I: Flow Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in‐stream barriers

Hirsch

Thorlacius

Brodin

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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Animal personalities are an important factor that affects the dispersal of animals. In the context of aquatic species, dispersal modeling needs to consider that most freshwater ecosystems are highly fragmented by barriers reducing longitudinal connectivity. Previous research has incorporated such barriers into dispersal models under the neutral assumption that all migrating animals attempt to ascend at all times. Modeling dispersal of animals that do not perform trophic or reproductive migrations will be more realistic if it includes assumptions of which individuals attempt to overcome a barrier. We aimed to introduce personality into predictive modeling of whether a nonmigratory invasive freshwater fish (the round goby, Neogobius melanostomus) will disperse across an in‐stream barrier. To that end, we experimentally assayed the personalities of 259 individuals from invasion fronts and established round goby populations. Based on the population differences in boldness, asociability, and activity, we defined a priori thresholds with bolder, more asocial, and more active individuals having a higher likelihood of ascent. We then combined the personality thresholds with swimming speed data from the literature and in situ measurements of flow velocities in the barrier. The resulting binary logistic regression model revealed probabilities of crossing a barrier which depended not only on water flow and fish swimming speed but also on animal personalities. We conclude that risk assessment through predictive dispersal modeling across fragmented landscapes can be advanced by including personality traits as parameters. The inclusion of behavior into modeling the spread of invasive species can help to improve the accuracy of risk assessments.

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Section: Step 1 221 | Model Parameterization I: Flow Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in‐stream barriers

Hirsch

Thorlacius

Brodin

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Reservoir level of the dam was estimated from reservoir storage using the level-storage relationship of a dammed river [25] shown below:…”

Section: Hydropower Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production

Oyerinde

Wisser

Hountondji

et al. 2016

Climate

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Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydropower generation. A hydrological model was used to model runoff inflow into the largest hydroelectric dam (Kainji) in the Niger Basin (West Africa) under present and future conditions. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from a set of dynamically downscaled 8 global climate models (GCM) with two emission scenarios from the CORDEX-Africa regional downscaling experiment, driven with CMIP5 data. Observed records of the Kainji Lake were used to develop a hydroelectricity production model to simulate future energy production for the reservoir. Results indicate an increase in inflow into the reservoir and concurrent increases in hydropower production for the majority of the GCM data under the two scenarios. This analysis helps planning hydropower schemes for sustainable hydropower production.

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“…The extent of these potential functional losses relative to whole lake ecosystems may depend on winter drawdown regime character (e.g. macrophyte reduction, flood storage) while minimising ecological integrity loss, as seen in hydro-economic models for hydropower reservoirs (Hirsch, Schillinger, Weigt, & Burkhardt-Holm, 2014), will help mitigate future threats to mussel populations and lake ecosystems. We encourage future research to examine the extent of potential ecosystem function loss in annual winter drawdown regimes.…”

Section: Con Clus Ionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual winter water level drawdowns limit shallow‐water mussel densities in small lakes

Carmignani

Roy

Hazelton³

et al. 2019

Freshwater Biology

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Regulated water level fluctuations alter the physical, chemical, and biological environments in lakes. However, few studies have measured the effects of repeated annual winter drawdowns on freshwater mussel populations (Bivalvia: Unionida), and it is unknown whether drawdowns permanently constrain mussel populations to deeper depths or are resilient to the annual disturbance. We quantified mussel densities during normal water levels and their mortality after the initiation of drawdown in lakes with annual winter (December–March) water level drawdown regimes that have existed for several decades. We used systematic quadrat sampling and visual snorkel surveys to estimate the number of live mussels at the surface and buried, and shell length in six drawdown and three control lakes at exposed (0.5‐m) and unexposed (1‐m) depths during winter drawdown. We also estimated mortality of mussels along the exposed lakebed for nine drawdown lakes. Study lakes were dominated by Elliptio complanata and Pyganodon cataracta. During normal water levels, mussel densities were much lower in drawdown lakes than control lakes at 0.5‐m depths. When mussels were present in drawdown lakes at 0.5‐m depths, they were often burrowed in the substrate and smaller than buried mussels in control lakes. At unexposed 1‐m depths, mussel densities were primarily explained by geographic region (western versus central Massachusetts), and found higher densities in drawdown lakes compared to control lakes. Mussel mortality after a single drawdown event in nine drawdown lakes was not correlated with drawdown magnitude or rate. Concordance of shell length‐frequency distributions between dead and buried living mussels in drawdown lakes suggests annual mortality of colonising individuals, which are typically small and presumably of young cohorts. Annual winter drawdowns still limit densities of E. complanata and P. cataracta in shallow‐water habitats in the following autumn (September–October) after 4–5 months of potential recovery, and hence constrain their distribution in lakes exposed to drawdowns. The development of sustainable water level management practices will be essential to minimise impacts to native mussel populations.

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A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

Cited by 32 publications

References 40 publications

An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in‐stream barriers

An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in‐stream barriers

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production

Annual winter water level drawdowns limit shallow‐water mussel densities in small lakes

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