A indústria marítima mundial: uma análise sob a perspectiva da dinâmica de sistemas.

Abstract

It is recognized that the world maritime industry has a cyclical behavior. Shipowners face periods of fabulous profits and disastrous miscalculations. The object of this work is to investigate the nature and causes of such behavior. The maritime industry is a complex system that can be split in four main markets: freight; secondhand ship; new ships and ships for demolition. The influences of one part on the others are not always well understood. Although the world economy influences the maritime industry, it has been observed that its behavior is fundamentally endogenous, such as: its own structure; the relationships between its parts; and the process of decision making. Furthermore, this behavior has strong dynamic characteristics. System Dynamics has been proving to be a suitable tool for analyzing such systems and, therefore, has been chosen. In this method a mathematical model is developed from a functional and causal description of the real system. A preliminary model was formulated which include three main sectors of industry: financial, freight market and shipbuilding industry. These sectors cover most of the relevant interactions and determinants of the behavior. The model simplified from the real world in many instances, and is based on certain assumptions previously stated. In spite of the simplifications, assumptions and omissions, the behavior of the model, as shown in computer results, replicates the most fundamental characteristics of the real world, the historical trends chosen as reference modes. It has been observed that the new ships ordering decisions are extremely important in stimulating the cyclical behavior. In this preliminary work this decision is founded on demand forecast and expected profitability of shipowners. This profitability is assumed as a function of shipowners total costs and a rate of return of investment, assumed as 15%. viii The model developed herein can serve as foundation structure upon which to develop more fully this area of investigation, and as a guide in such developments. It is hoped that further work is carried out towards gaining a sounder understanding of the maritime economics market cycles. Considering the results presented so far, it is possible to conclude that System Dynamics is a valid tool for investigation and can yield rewarding results.

O mercado brasileiro da soja: uma análise sob a perspectiva da dinâmica de sistemas.

“…A. É válido destacar que, além do supracitado Sterman (2000), também foram consultadas como fontes secundárias sobre os conceitos que são apresentados neste capítulo: o livro "Introduction to computer simulation: a system dynamics modeling approach", de Roberts et al (1983); o livro "The fifth discipline", de Senge (1990); o livro "Systems thinking and modelling: understanding change and complexity", de Maani e Cavana (2000); o livro "Competitive strategy dynamics", de Warren (2002); o livro "Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de sistemas", de Garcia (2003); o livro "Limits to growth: the 30 year update", de Meadows et al (2004); a dissertação de mestrado "A indústria marítima mundial: uma análise sob a perspectiva da dinâmica de sistemas", de Santos (2007); a tese de doutorado "A indústria da cana-de-açúcar: uma análise sob a perspectiva da dinâmica de sistemas", de Santos ( 2012); e o livro "Desvendando sistemas", de Amaral (2012).…”