A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Bastos, Ana; Sippel, Sebastian; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Zaehle, Sönke; Zscheischler, Jakob; Reichstein, Markus

doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3

Cited by 35 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 200 publications

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“…Although useful, statistical approaches are unlikely to realistically extrapolate current disturbance dynamics much beyond the short observational record or to capture emerging dynamics resulting from complex feedbacks (Mack et al, 2021), especially under the rapid and drastic environmental changes expected in the coming decades. Quantifying the extent and impact of future natural disturbances on forest functioning and structure therefore requires the use of models that can fully incorporate feedbacks between global environmental and climatic changes, biotic disturbances, and forest condition (Bastos et al, 2023).…”

Section: Integrating Biotic Disturbances In Earth System Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances: DEFID2

Forzieri,

Dutrieux,

Elia

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Insect and disease outbreaks in forests are biotic disturbances that can profoundly alter ecosystem dynamics. In many parts of the world, these disturbance regimes are intensifying as the climate changes and shifts the distribution of species and biomes. As a result, key forest ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, regulation of water flows, wood production, protection of soils, and the conservation of biodiversity, could be increasingly compromised. Despite the relevance of these detrimental effects, there are currently no spatially detailed databases that record insect and disease disturbances on forests at the pan‐European scale. Here, we present the new Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances (DEFID2). It comprises over 650,000 harmonized georeferenced records, mapped as polygons or points, of insects and disease disturbances that occurred between 1963 and 2021 in European forests. The records currently span eight different countries and were acquired through diverse methods (e.g., ground surveys, remote sensing techniques). The records in DEFID2 are described by a set of qualitative attributes, including severity and patterns of damage symptoms, agents, host tree species, climate‐driven trigger factors, silvicultural practices, and eventual sanitary interventions. They are further complemented with a satellite‐based quantitative characterization of the affected forest areas based on Landsat Normalized Burn Ratio time series, and damage metrics derived from them using the LandTrendr spectral–temporal segmentation algorithm (including onset, duration, magnitude, and rate of the disturbance), and possible interactions with windthrow and wildfire events. The DEFID2 database is a novel resource for many large‐scale applications dealing with biotic disturbances. It offers a unique contribution to design networks of experiments, improve our understanding of ecological processes underlying biotic forest disturbances, monitor their dynamics, and enhance their representation in land‐climate models. Further data sharing is encouraged to extend and improve the DEFID2 database continuously. The database is freely available at https://jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ftp/jrc‐opendata/FOREST/DISTURBANCES/DEFID2/.

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Section: Integrating Biotic Disturbances In Earth System Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances: DEFID2

Forzieri,

Dutrieux,

Elia

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Worldwide, droughts have significant impacts on rainforests in tropical regions (e.g. Amazonia, Congo, southeastern Asia) (Bastos et al 2023). Our analysis of antecedent hydro-climatological conditions preceding to dry-season and the quantification of concurrent thermal and water stress can be generalized to understand what may happen to rainforests globally.…”

Section: Severity Of Dry-season Thermal and Water Stress During The T...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the relative importance of dry-season incoming solar radiation and water storage dynamics during the 2005, 2010 and 2015 southern Amazon droughts: not all droughts are created equal

Liu,

McVicar,

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Three severe droughts impacted the Amazon in 2005, 2010, and 2015, leading to widespread above-average land surface temperature (LST) (i.e., positive thermal anomalies) over the southern Amazon in the dry season (Aug–Sep) of these years. Below-average dry-season incoming solar radiation (SW↓) and terrestrial water storage (TWSA) were simultaneously observed in 2005 and 2010, whereas the opposite was observed in 2015. We found that anomalies in precipitation (P), SW↓, and TWSA combined can well explain dry-season thermal anomalies during these droughts (average R2 ~0.51). We investigated the causes for opposing anomalies in dry-season SW↓ and TWSA, and found different hydro-meteorological conditions preceding the drought-year dry seasons. In 2005 and 2010, P was considerably below average during the wet-to-dry transition season (May–Jul), causing below-average TWSA in dry season that was favourable for fires. Increased atmospheric aerosols resulting from fires reduced solar radiation reaching the ground. In 2015, although below-average dry-season P was observed, it was above the average during the wet-to-dry transition season, leading to reduced fires and aerosols, and increased dry-season SW↓. To further examine the impact of opposite hydro-meteorological processes on the drought severity, we compared dry-season LST during droughts with the maximum LST during non-drought years (i.e., LSTmax) for all grid cells, and a similar analysis was conducted for TWSA with the minimum TWSA (i.e., TWSAmin). Accordingly, the regions that suffered from concurrent thermal and water stress (i.e., LST > LSTmax and TWSA < TWSAmin) were identified. These regions are mainly observed over the southeast in 2005 and southern Amazon in 2010. In 2015, large-scale dry-season thermal stress was found over central and southeast Amazon with little water stress. This study underlines the complex interactions of different hydrological components and the importance of understanding the evolution of droughts to better predict their possible impacts on the Amazon rainforest.

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“…However, shifts in drought patterns, e.g. due to anthropogenic climate change, compounded with other human pressures on ecosystems, can alter ecosystem composition and functioning, in turn affecting ecosystem resilience and potentially leading to critical legacy effects (Bastos et al, 2023;Crausbay et al, 2020;Kannenberg et al, 2020). The impacts of drought on ecosystems take place at multiple timescales, from very short (hours to days) to very long (years to decades; Fig.…”

Section: Ecosystemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Van Loon,

Kchouk,

Matanó

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception and management of droughts and their impacts is often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydro-eco-social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different time scales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately; and then study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River Basin in the US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River Basin in Northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; and High resilience, big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought pre-conditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we argue for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase social and institutional memory to better deal with the complex hydro-eco-social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation.

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A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Cited by 35 publications

References 200 publications

The Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances: DEFID2

The Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances: DEFID2

Assessing the relative importance of dry-season incoming solar radiation and water storage dynamics during the 2005, 2010 and 2015 southern Amazon droughts: not all droughts are created equal

Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

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