A large scale OLG model for the analysis of the redistributive effects of policy reforms

Bucciol, Alessandro; Cavalli, Laura; Fedotenkov, Igor; Pertile, Paolo; Polin, Veronica; Sartor, Nicola; Sommacal, Alessandro

doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.08.005

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…This regional difference of the NRPS effect may be due to the income differences between the two regions. This result is in line with the findings of Bucciol et al (2017) [27] that provision of pensions in European countries decreased the formal labor participation of people with lower income level. We thank an anonymous reviewer for his/her great insights in integrating this result.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…It is worthy to note the low R-square in the results due to the high amount of unexplainable variability in the observations, which is a common problem in many labor studies, e.g., [21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. Nevertheless, even when R-squared is low, low p-values still indicate a real relationship between the significant predictors and the response variable.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme on Retirement Sustainability in China: Evidence of Regional Differences in Formal and Informal Labor Supply

Lin

Zhang

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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This paper evaluates the effect of China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the retirement sustainability in forms of formal labor supply and informal labor supply in terms of care of grandchildren, using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). We explore the regional differences of the NRPS effect on labor supply between the West and the other regions of China. Our analysis shows that rural Western China has a more severe problem of “ceaseless toil” compared to the rest of the country. We find that NRPS improves the “ceaseless toil” situation of the Chinese rural elderly especially in Western China. Our results suggest the need to increase the amount of NRPS payment, and to develop a region-specific pension programs in China.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme on Retirement Sustainability in China: Evidence of Regional Differences in Formal and Informal Labor Supply

Lin

Zhang

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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“…As far as we know, our study is the first to investigate the sustainable impact of comprehensive poverty alleviation policy on BEIURR. Some scholars believe that poverty reduction policies may lead to new inequities, worsening rather than improving the structure of income distribution [35][36][37]. However, our research finds that overall poverty alleviation mainly affects the short-term current deficit, and under the current pension treatment calculation mode stipulated by China, the higher the pension replacement rate, the safer the sustainability of BEIURR in the short term.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Assessing the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension Funding for Urban and Rural Residents

Sun

Xian³

2020

Sustainability

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This paper uses an actuarial model to evaluate the effect of poverty alleviation policy on the sustainability of China’s basic pension funding for urban and rural residents (BPFUUR). Because of the poverty alleviation policy, China’s basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents (BEIURR) has been given the responsibility of helping the poor through insurance and by increasing the income of the elderly. On the basis of summarizing the current situation of BEIURR, this paper simulated and predicted the impact of poverty alleviation policy on the short term (2020–2025) and medium term (2025–2050) sustainability of China’s BPFUUR. The results show that: (1) The sustainability of the fund will inevitably face challenges; (2) The per capita contribution level will be at a low level for a long time; (3) The birth tide brought by the two-child policy has a positive impact on the medium-term sustainability of the fund; (4) Poverty eradication mainly affects the short-term current deficit, but not the medium-term accumulated deficit; (5) The higher the payment, the better the sustainability of the funding in the short and medium term. According to the above results, this paper puts forward some countermeasures, such as insisting on family planning, optimizing the adjustment system for basic pension funds, and improving the treatment of basic pensions.

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“…Shen [31] and Caliendo and Findley [32] pointed out that rising social security contribution rates reduce human capital investment and hinder economic growth under the pay-as-you-go social security system. Different from the research above, Bucciol et al [33] pointed out that pay-as-you-go pension schemes might increase life-cycle income inequality in a model with heterogeneous agents, and it is more beneficial for educated people with high productivity. In other words, pension schemes' income effect depends on human capital.…”

Section: Literature Review and Research Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 87%

Social Security and Sustainable Economic Growth: Based on the Perspective of Human Capital

2019

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China’s social security expenditure has rapidly grown during the past decade, and concerns about the impact of social security on productivity and sustained economic growth have attracted attention. Based on Chinese provincial panel data over the period 2007–2016, a threshold model analysis found that the impact of social security on productivity has a “double threshold” on human capital. Using dynamic panel data models and system General Moment Method estimators also found the existence of this threshold effect: When the human capital level is low or high, social security is favorable for sustained economic growth. However, if the human capital level is at the intermediate level, the function of social security is weak. The main conclusions were still valid after we examined the robustness of our results with several methods.

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A large scale OLG model for the analysis of the redistributive effects of policy reforms

Cited by 15 publications

References 23 publications

The Impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme on Retirement Sustainability in China: Evidence of Regional Differences in Formal and Informal Labor Supply

The Impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme on Retirement Sustainability in China: Evidence of Regional Differences in Formal and Informal Labor Supply

Assessing the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension Funding for Urban and Rural Residents

Social Security and Sustainable Economic Growth: Based on the Perspective of Human Capital

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