A late Holocene shift of typhoon activity recorded by coastal sedimentary archives in eastern China

Abstract

Frequency changes in intense typhoons are of great concern to modern society. However, current understanding of the influence of climate on typhoon activity on the millennial scale is restricted by the sparseness of preobservational reconstructions in the north-western Pacific. This study presents a 5500 year long typhoon record from the Jiangsu coast that provides the first >2 ka record in eastern China. Variations in the D90 grain size are the best predictor of recent typhoons in a second short high-resolution core. Comparison with other typhoon records from south-eastern China establishes a China millennial typhoon variability index during the middle to late Holocene, with maxima at ca 4750 AE 170, 3500 AE 220, 1500 AE 480 and 250 AE 170 yr BP and minima at ca 5200 AE 300, 4150 AE 430, 2600 AE 650 and 750 AE 270 yr BP. Peaks in typhoon activity in south-eastern China (compared with Japan) correlate with damped (enhanced) El Niño-Southern Oscillation and weak (strong) East Asian Summer Monsoon, indicating a seesaw pattern in typhoon activity between the two regions. A shift in typhoon frequency pattern was also identified around 2000 yr BP in south-eastern China, with subsequent more frequent typhoon activity. At that time there was sustained Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduction and its associated El Niño-Southern Oscillation enhancement, so Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-driven El Niño-Southern Oscillation changes are likely to be the major cause of the significant increase in typhoon activity since 2000 yr BP, resulting in the 1500 AE 480 and 250 AE 170 yr BP China millennial typhoon variability peaks. To accurately predict changes in intense typhoon activity, it is therefore important to understand how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation will respond to future climate change.

Influence of a Rapidly Uplifting Orogen on the Preservation of Climate Oscillations

“…Presently, sediment is transported from the Taiwan orogen to the Taiwan Strait primarily during high precipitation and runoff associated with the EASM and tropical cyclones (C.‐W. Chen et al., 2018; Dadson et al., 2003, 2004; Dashtgard et al., 2021; Kao & Milliman, 2008; Milliman et al., 2007, 2017; Milliman & Kao, 2005; Steer et al., 2020; Vaucher et al., 2021; Vaucher, Zeeden, et al., 2023; Y. Yang et al., 2022). Sediment transport was likely similar in the geologic past because the morphology, tectonic setting, and evolution of Taiwan have remained relatively constant since the late Pliocene (Hsieh et al., 2022; A. T. Lin et al., 2003; A. T. Lin & Watts, 2002; Nagel et al., 2013, 2014, 2018).…”

Multi‐proxy evidence for rapidly shifting sediment sources to the Taiwan Western Foreland Basin at the Miocene–Pliocene transition

“…In the present‐day, sediment is liberated from the Taiwan orogen by earthquakes and landslides. These sediment are then transported to the Taiwan Strait through fluvial drainage systems, largely during massive precipitation and runoff associated with tropical cyclones (Chen et al, 2018; Dadson et al, 2004; Dashtgard et al, 2021; Kao & Milliman, 2008; Milliman et al, 2017; Milliman & Kao, 2005; Steer et al, 2020; Vaucher et al, 2021; Yang et al, 2022). Because the morphology, tectonic setting and evolution of Taiwan has remained largely unchanged since the early Pliocene (Lin et al, 2003; Lin & Watts, 2002; Nagel et al, 2013, 2014, 2018), the processes that eroded and delivered sediment from the Taiwan orogen to the palaeo‐Taiwan Strait are likely analogous to the present‐day.…”

“…Refer to Figure 1 for the palaeo-water depth legend. tropical cyclones (Chen et al, 2018;Dadson et al, 2004;Dashtgard et al, 2021;Milliman et al, 2017;Milliman & Kao, 2005;Steer et al, 2020;Vaucher et al, 2021;Yang et al, 2022). Because the morphology, tectonic setting and evolution of Taiwan has remained largely unchanged since the early Pliocene (Lin et al, 2003;Lin & Watts, 2002;Nagel et al, 2013Nagel et al, , 2014Nagel et al, , 2018, the processes that eroded and delivered sediment from the Taiwan orogen to the palaeo-Taiwan Strait are likely analogous to the present-day.…”

Typhoon and flooding occurrences on Chongming Island, Changjiang Estuary, as revealed by a newly acquired sedimentary record

“…The mean (X ̄) and standard deviation (s) are then recalculated excluding these outliers (Ercolani et al, 2015), and finally, take X ̄+s and X ̄−s (unit: mm) as the background thresholds for coarse and fine grains, respectively. Although tidal flat sediments show a general tendency for mean grain size to decrease from offshore to onshore, in many cases the flat hosts several sub-environments that complicate this simple spatial pattern (Fan et al, 2006;Yang et al, 2022a). Therefore, the calculation of background parameters was performed in different sections of core ZP02, in agreement with the changing environmental conditions interpreted from the sedimentary column.…”