2019
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajce.20190701.14
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A Logistic Model Predicting Occurrence Probability of Debris Flow

Abstract: This paper presents a logistic model for predicting the occurrence probability of debris flows based on rainfall intensity and duration. The data from a total of 354 rainfall events were used to calibrate the model, among which 249 were triggering a debris flow while 105 were not. The model will be useful to the decision making of debris flow early warning in the future. That is, given the estimated occurrence probability = 70% subject to a combination of rainfall intensity and duration, there is a 30% probabi… Show more

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