A logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream in Vermont having intermittent flow

Abstract

A logistic regression equation was developed for estimating the probability of a stream flowing intermittently at unregulated, rural stream sites in Vermont. These determinations can be used for a wide variety of regulatory and planning efforts at the Federal, State, regional, county and town levels, including such applications as assessing fish and wildlife habitats, wetlands classifications, recreational opportunities, water-supply potential, waste-assimilation capacities, and sediment transport. The equation will be used to create a derived product for the Vermont Hydrography Dataset having the streamflow characteristic of "intermittent" or "perennial." The Vermont Hydrography Dataset is Vermont's implementation of the National Hydrography Dataset and was created at a scale of 1:5,000 based on statewide digital orthophotos. The equation was developed by relating field-verified perennial or intermittent status of a stream site during normal summer low-streamflow conditions in the summer of 2005 to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams in Vermont. The database used to develop the equation included 682 stream sites with drainage areas ranging from 0.05 to 5.0 square miles. When the 682 sites were observed, 126 were intermittent (had no flow at the time of the observation) and 556 were perennial (had flowing water at the time of the observation). The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream having intermittent flow in Vermont is a function of drainage area, elevation of the site, the ratio of basin relief to basin perimeter, and the areal percentage of well-and moderately well-drained soils in the basin. Using a probability cutpoint (a lower probability indicates the site has perennial flow and a higher probability indicates the site has intermittent flow) of 0.5, the logistic regression equation correctly predicted the perennial or intermittent status of 116 test sites 85 percent of the time.

Comparing the Extent and Permanence of Headwater Streams From Two Field Surveys to Values From Hydrographic Databases and Maps

“…For example, surface flow in stream networks draining agricultural catchments in western Oregon expands almost by two orders of magnitude from the dry summers to the wet winters (Wigington et al ., ). Several field studies have characterized where intermittent flow and perennial flow originate along headwater streams and many of these utilize basin and geomorphic measurements, such as drainage area, drainage density, and entrenchment ratio (Paybins, ; Rivenbark and Jackson, ; Svec et al ., ; Olson and Brouillette, ; Fritz et al ., ). Although the probability of perennial flow generally increases with increasing drainage area and channel size, thresholds and their probability distributions vary among regions because of differences in climate, topography, soils, and geology (Jaeger et al ., ; Winter, ).…”

Classifying Streamflow Duration: The Scientific Basis and an Operational Framework for Method Development

“…Recent channel modifications or large flood events can obscure geomorphic indicators such as soil texture and recent alluvial deposits. Some existing methods recommend not assessing reaches within 48-72 h of significant rainfall to ensure that indicators are not observed directly after disturbance [158,169,170]. Similarly, abnormally long periods without precipitation can obscure biological indicators such as the presence of hydrophytic plants and macroinvertebrate community structure.…”

“…Within homogenous ecoregions or hydrologic landscapes, catchment area can correlate with flow duration [36]. Catchment area thresholds between intermittent and perennial headwater streams were derived in the northeast U.S. [37,170], as well as between ephemeral and intermittent streams in western U.S. [45]. As with most landscape scale controls on flow duration, such as catchment area and precipitation, thresholds between flow duration classes are rarely universal within and among regions.…”

“…As with most landscape scale controls on flow duration, such as catchment area and precipitation, thresholds between flow duration classes are rarely universal within and among regions. For example, Olson and Brouillette [170] constrained catchment area thresholds between intermittent and perennial streams to < 12.9 km 2 , and Hedman and Osterkamp [45] excluded streams of the arid southwest from catchment area and flow duration relationships in the western U.S. GIS control metrics can be used throughout SDAM method development to inform reach selection as well as during model development to account for landscape-level differences in indicator effectiveness.…”

Spatial organization of process domains in headwater drainage basins of a glaciated foothills region with complex longitudinal profiles

“…To predict the headward extent of channels, Heine et al [2004] developed a logistic regression model with a suite of topographic descriptors that had higher accuracy than using either a constant threshold for area or a slope‐dependent area threshold for the same study area. Similar models have also been applied to predict flow permanence [ Olson and Brouillette , 2006]. Locations of flow permanence and channel heads are related; however, flow permanence is more transient than channel heads and is harder to predict [ Dietrich and Dunne , 1993].…”