A long-term nearshore wave hindcast for Ireland: Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts (1979–2012)

Gallagher, Sarah; Tiron, Roxana; Dias, Frédéric

doi:10.1007/s10236-014-0728-3

Cited by 54 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Figure 5 shows the Spearman rank correlation coefficient between the station-based NAO index and the 95th percentile of H s for DJFM for the historical period (1980 to 2009) and the period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for each ensemble member. Previous studies have shown a strong correlation between NAO and H s for the present wave climate off the west coast of Ireland (Gallagher et al, 2014), and for more extreme wave heights in the Northeast Atlantic and North Sea regions (Santo et al, 2016b). This is consistent with Figure 5a-c which shows the strong positive correlation coefficient, by ensemble member, between NAO and H s averaged over the historical period.…”

Section: North Atlantic Oscillation (Nao)supporting

confidence: 80%

“…The 95th percentile of H s is projected to decrease in most coastal areas around Ireland. The increase in the 95th percentile of H s in the Irish Sea for me41 is dubious because the coarse resolution of the EC-Earth simulations (125 km) is of the same order of magnitude as the extent of the Irish Sea which acts much like a closed basin as regards wave modelling, with local wind-seas dominating the wave climate (Gallagher et al, 2014). The projected decreases off the west coast of Ireland are not statistically significant in me41 and me83 (lack of hatching in these areas in Fig.…”

Section: Ec-earth and Wavewatch III Validation And Projection Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2. The study presented here expands on Gallagher et al (2014Gallagher et al ( , 2016a and focusses on the influence of the NAO on extreme sea states in the North Atlantic and how this may change in the future. This is important because phenomenal sea states (H s > 14 m) have been regularly reported off the west coast of Ireland Gleeson et al, 2013;Clancy et al, 2015Clancy et al, , 2016O'Brien et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dommenget and Latif (2002) showed that patterns derived from EOFs may be misleading at times and not associated with climate physics. Gallagher et al (2014) identified a strong link between the station-derived NAO and significant wave height (H s ), wave period and peak direction for winter and spring off the west coast of Ireland where WAVEWATCH III (Tolman, 2014), driven by ERA-Interim data, was used to derive the wave climatology. The influence of the EA, while significant, was much smaller, and mostly affected waves off the southern half of Ireland in autumn and winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Large scale atmospheric oscillations are known to have an influence on waves in the North Atlantic. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: fluctuations in the difference between the Icelandic low pressure system and the Azore high pressure system). In this study a statistical analysis of the station-based NAO index was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. The NAO index was compared to observations and to projected changes in the index by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. In addition, an ensemble of EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH III wave model projections over the North Atlantic was analysed to determine the correlations between the NAO and significant wave height (H s ) and the NAO and extreme ocean states. For the most part, no statistically significant differences were found between the distributions of observed and modelled station-based NAO or in projected distributions of the NAO.Means and extremes of H s are projected to decrease on average by the end of this century. The 95th percentile of H s is strongly positively correlated to the NAO. Projections of H s extremes are location dependent and in fact, under the influence of positive NAO the 20-year return levels of H s were found to be amplified in some regions. However, it is important to note that the projected decreases in the 95th percentile of H s off the west coast of Ireland are not statistically significant in one of the RCP4.5 and one of the RCP8.5 simulations (me41, me83) which indicates that there is still uncertainty in the projections of higher percentiles.

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Section: North Atlantic Oscillation (Nao)supporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Ec-earth and Wavewatch III Validation And Projection Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

et al. 2017

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“…Annual mean significant wave heights (SWH) vary from 1-2 m in the wind-sea dominated Irish Sea, to 3-4 m off the swell dominated Atlantic coast of Ireland. In winter mean SWHs are over 5 m off the west coast (Gallagher et al, 2014). Although not part of this study, the careful assessment of any potential WECs deployment locations would also benefit from the consideration of currents, in addition to the wind and wave climate, and in particular wave-current interactions (WCI), which can vary wave power estimation (for example, Barbariol et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twenty-first century wave climate projections for Ireland and surface winds in the North Atlantic Ocean

Gallagher

Gleeson

Tiron³

et al. 2016

Adv. Sci. Res.

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Abstract. Ireland has a highly energetic wave and wind climate, and is therefore uniquely placed in terms of its ocean renewable energy resource. The socio-economic importance of the marine resource to Ireland makes it critical to quantify how the wave and wind climate may change in the future due to global climate change. Projected changes in winds, ocean waves and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events should be carefully assessed for long-term marine and coastal planning. We derived an ensemble of future wave climate projections for Ireland using the EC-Earth global climate model and the WAVEWATCH III ® wave model, by comparing the future 30-year period 2070-2099 to the period 1980-2009 for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. This dataset is currently the highest resolution wave projection dataset available for Ireland. The ECEarth ensemble predicts decreases in mean (up to 2 % for RCP4.5 and up to 3.5 % for RCP8.5) 10 m wind speeds over the North Atlantic Ocean (5-75 • N, 0-80 • W) by the end of the century, which will consequently affect swell generation for the Irish wave climate. The WAVEWATCH III ® model predicts an overall decrease in annual and seasonal mean significant wave heights around Ireland, with the largest decreases in summer (up to 15 %) and winter (up to 10 %) for RCP8.5. Projected decreases in mean significant wave heights for spring and autumn were found to be small for both forcing scenarios (less than 5 %), with no significant decrease found for RCP4.5 off the west coast in those seasons.

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Clast abrasion of a rock shore platform on the Atlantic coast of Ireland

Cullen

Bourke

2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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The abrasion of coastal rock platforms by individual or clusters of clasts during transport has not been quantitatively assessed. We present a study which identifies the types of abrasion and quantifies erosion due to the transport of clasts during three storms in February and March 2016. We explore relationships between platform roughness, determined by the fractal dimension (D) of the topographic profiles, geomorphic controls and the type and frequency of abrasion feature observed. Clast transport experiments were undertaken in conjunction with the measurement of wave energy to assess transport dynamics under summer and winter (non‐storm) conditions. Platform abrasion occurred extensively during the storms. We identify two types of clast abrasion trails: simple and complex. In addition, we find two forms of erosion occur on these trails: Scratch marks and Percussion marks. An estimated 13.6 m2 of the platform surface was eroded by clast abrasion on simple abrasion trails during the three storms. We attribute approximately two thirds of this to scratch‐type abrasion. The total volume of material removed by abrasion was 67 808 cm3. Despite the larger surface area affected by scratch marks, we find that the volume of material removed through percussion impact was almost seven times greater. We also find that the type and frequency of abrasion features is strongly influenced by the effect of platform morphometry on transport mode, with impact‐type abrasion dominating areas of higher platform roughness. Results of the clast transport experiments indicate that abrasion occurs under non‐storm wave energy conditions with observable geomorphological effects. We suggest that abrasion by clasts is an important component of platform erosion on high energy Atlantic coastlines, particularly over longer timescales, and that the morphogenetic link between the cliff and the platform is important in this context as the sediment supplied by the cliff is used to abrade the platform. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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A long-term nearshore wave hindcast for Ireland: Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts (1979–2012)

Cited by 54 publications

References 22 publications

NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Twenty-first century wave climate projections for Ireland and surface winds in the North Atlantic Ocean

Clast abrasion of a rock shore platform on the Atlantic coast of Ireland

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