A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

Martı́, Joan; Aspinall, Willy; Sobradelo, Rosa; Felpeto, A.; Geyer, Adelina; Ortiz, R.; Baxter, P. J.; Cole, Paul; Pacheco, José; Blanco, M. J.; López, Carmen

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.09.023

Cited by 59 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…That being said, we note that full PVHA is still quite rare (Magill et al 2006;Ho et al 2006;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008 are among the few exceptions).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Despite its importance, volcanic hazard assessment is still commonly presented in many different ways, ranging from maps of past deposits of the volcano to more quantitative probabilistic assessment (e.g., Scandone et al 1993;Newhall and Hoblitt 2002;Marzocchi et al 2004;Martin et al 2004;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008). The latter, being quantitative, has remarkable advantages: (1) it allows comparisons among different volcanoes and with other natural and nonnatural hazards, (2) its reliability can be tested through statistical procedures, and (3) it provides a basic component for rationale decision making (e.g., Marzocchi andWoo 2007, 2009;Woo 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

2010

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In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.

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“…That being said, we note that full PVHA is still quite rare (Magill et al 2006;Ho et al 2006;Neri et al 2008;Marti et al 2008 are among the few exceptions).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

2010

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“…This expert assessment of uncertainty may be communicated on a conventional map by using solid lines for observed boundaries and dashed lines for those that are inferred. Expert elicitation methods have been used elsewhere in earth sciences -for example Martí et al (2008), Truong et al (2013), Polson and Curtis (2010), Bond et al (2007) and Scourse et al (2015).…”

Section: The Objective Of Elicitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

et al. 2015

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Abstract. It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

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“…While their approach enables drawing multi-hazard maps for a volcano where relatively few eruptive styles are known (Zogning, 1988), a structured procedure is required for more complex volcanoes with numerous and very different possible eruptive scenarios. To this end, Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) proposed building event trees, which have been applied for example by Marzocchi et al (2004) to Vesuvius, and then used by and Martì et al (2008) to provide a volcanic hazard map at Vesuvius and Teide-Pico Viejo, respectively. Finally, a Bayesian event tree to estimate volcanic hazard (BET VH) has recently been published by Marzocchi et al (2010) and applied at Campi Flegrei volcanic field, in southern Italy .…”

Section: Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines)

Neri

Cozannet

Thierry

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas is complex since much evidence of volcanic and non-volcanic hazards is often hidden by vegetation and alteration. In this paper, we propose a semi-quantitative method based on hazard event tree and multi-hazard map constructions developed in the frame of the FP7 MIAVITA project. We applied this method to the Kanlaon volcano (Philippines), which is characterized by poor geologic and historical records. We combine updated geological (long-term) and historical (short-term) data, building an event tree for the main types of hazardous events at Kanlaon and their potential frequencies. We then propose an updated multi-hazard map for Kanlaon, which may serve as a working base map in the case of future unrest. The obtained results extend the information already contained in previous volcanic hazard maps of Kanlaon, highlighting (i) an extensive, potentially active ~5 km long summit area striking north–south, (ii) new morphological features on the eastern flank of the volcano, prone to receiving volcanic products expanding from the summit, and (iii) important riverbeds that may potentially accumulate devastating mudflows. This preliminary study constitutes a basis that may help local civil defence authorities in making more informed land use planning decisions and in anticipating future risk/hazards at Kanlaon. This multi-hazard mapping method may also be applied to other poorly known active volcanoes

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A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

Cited by 59 publications

References 17 publications

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines)

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