A longitudinal analysis of travel demand and its determinants in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

Abstract

This study provides a unique long-term investigation of regional travel demand that addresses several gaps in the existing longitudinal literature. Firstly, it investigates the development of travel demand in terms of both vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and passenger kilometres travelled (PKT), based on actual demand, congestion and equilibrium distances, using road and multi-modal transit networks in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA). Secondly, it identifies influential travel demand determinants after testing an extensive set of variables including longitudinal gravity-based transport accessibility measures. Thirdly, it investigates to what extent the determinants’ influence changes over time and various locations within the study area, providing new insights into the temporal and intra-regional variations of travel demand and its determinants. The findings show that VKT and PKT have grown in absolute and per trip terms, mainly due to substantial population growth, especially in the suburban areas. Whilst average potential travel times by transit have decreased, they are substantially longer than auto travel times. Furthermore, travel demand determinants vary significantly across space by degrees of urbanity, especially for VKT. The findings call for area- and population segment-specific land use and transportation policies across the GTHA.

A Comparative Analysis of Travel Speeds Between Suburbs and the Downtown Core in the Greater Toronto Area

“…The study uses traffic analysis zones (TAZs) as the areal units for analysis. TAZs are designated analysis zones for the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS), and are accepted as standard areal units for traffic and congestion research (Hasnine et al, 2020;Kloostra & Roorda, 2019;Kasraian et al, 2018).…”