A lumped conceptual model to simulate groundwater level time-series

Mackay, Jonathan H.; Jackson, C. R.; Wang, L.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.06.003

Cited by 68 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…A range of techniques can be used to model groundwater hydrographs at a site, i.e. non-distributed groundwater models, including statistical models (Ahn, 2000;Bloomfield et al, 2003), artificial neural network models (Sreekanth et al, 2009) and "blackbox" models (Mackay et al, 2014). The hydrograph cluster analysis could be used in combination with any of these techniques for groundwater drought forecasting.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hydrograph cluster analysis could be used in combination with any of these techniques for groundwater drought forecasting. For example, forecasts of groundwater levels 1 to 3 months out are currently undertaken in the UK for selected sites using a black-box, lumped-parameter model (Jackson et al, 2013;Mackay et al, 2014;Hydrological Outlooks, 2015) driven by probabilistic estimates of future rainfall. Regional inferences of future groundwater levels are then based on qualitative interpretations of the individual sites.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification

Bloomfield

Marchant

Bricker

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

117

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Abstract. Groundwater drought is a spatially and temporally variable phenomenon. Here we describe the development of a method to regionally analyse and quantify groundwater drought. The method uses a cluster analysis technique (nonhierarchical k-means) to classify standardised groundwater level hydrographs (the standardised groundwater level index, SGI) prior to analysis of their groundwater drought characteristics, and has been tested using 74 groundwater level time series from Lincolnshire, UK. Using the test data set, six clusters of hydrographs have been identified. For each cluster a correlation can be established between the mean SGI and a mean standardised precipitation index (SPI), where each cluster is associated with a different SPI accumulation period. Based on a comparison of SPI time series for each cluster and for the study area as a whole, it is inferred that the clusters are independent of the driving meteorology and are primarily a function of catchment and hydrogeological factors. This inference is supported by the observation that the majority of sites in each cluster are associated with one of the principal aquifers in the study region. The groundwater drought characteristics of the three largest clusters, which constitute ∼ 80 % of the sites, have been analysed. There are differences in the distributions of drought duration, magnitude and intensity of groundwater drought events between the three clusters as a function of autocorrelation of the mean SGI time series for each cluster. In addition, there are differences between the clusters in their response to three major multi-annual droughts that occurred during the analysis period. For example, sites in the cluster with the longest SGI autocorrelation experience the greatest-magnitude droughts and are the slowest to recover from major droughts, with groundwater drought conditions typically persisting at least 6 months longer than at sites in the other clusters. Membership of the clusters is shown to be related to unsaturated zone thickness at individual boreholes. This last observation emphasises the importance of catchment and aquifer characteristics as (non-trivial) controls on groundwater drought hydrographs. The method of analysis is flexible and can be adapted to a wide range of hydrogeological settings while enabling a consistent approach to the quantification of regional differences in response of groundwater to meteorological drought.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification

Bloomfield

Marchant

Bricker

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

117

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“…Secondly because ET is a relatively small component of the overall water balance in this catchment and it was not the aim of this study to investigate this aspect of the catchment hydrology. Thirdly, because previous 15 studies have shown that this parameter (and therefore the behaviour of this function) is relatively insensitive and unidentifiable (Mackay et al, 2014).…”

Section: A1 Soil Infiltration and Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even so, to satisfy the water balance, an explicit representation of the soil zone for model nodes that are not ice or snow-covered was included using the method developed by Griffiths et al (2006) which has been successfully applied to temperate regions in the past (Mackay et al, 2014;Sorensen et al, 2014) and is based on the well 30 established UN Food and Agricultural Organisation soil water balance method (Allen et al, 1998 defines the maximum volume of water available to plants for evapotranspiration after the soil has drained to its field capacity and can be defined from lookup tables with basic information on vegetation and soil information (Allen et al, 1998). This was parametrised using the 'Talus' soil class and 'semi-vegetated' land surface class giving an average T AW value of 7 mm.…”

Section: A1 Soil Infiltration and Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacio-hydrological melt and runoff modelling: a limits of acceptability framework for model selection

Mackay

Barrand

Hannah

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) underpin our understanding how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process-level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-5 hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá river basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 'signatures' derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations are harnessed to define 'limits of acceptability' (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three runoff-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures, but does 10 not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and runoff-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and runoff-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here 15 provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses.Future melt and runoff model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using the LOA framework.

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“…4). Groundwater levels are simulated using the AquiMod lumped conceptual model (Mackay et al 2014), which has been shown to capture nonlinear groundwater level dynamics in a range of hydrogeological settings. Currently, 33 of the AquiMod Gmodels run on a monthly time step and nine on a daily time step, the selection of which has been made considering the degree of variability of the groundwater hydrograph and its responsiveness to rainfall, as determined through analyses of autocorrelation and cross-correlation against rainfall.…”

Section: A National-scale Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Based On Raimentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

Prudhomme

Hannaford

Harrigan

et al. 2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.ARTICLE HISTORY

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A lumped conceptual model to simulate groundwater level time-series

Abstract: ABSTRACT:Lumped, conceptual groundwater models can be used to simulate groundwater level time-

Cited by 68 publications

References 64 publications

Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification

Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification

Glacio-hydrological melt and runoff modelling: a limits of acceptability framework for model selection

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

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