A Machine Learning Model to Predict Death Outcome in Severe COVID-19 Patients

Abstract

BackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads rapidly among people and causes a global pandemic. It is of great clinical significance to identify COVID-19 patients with high risk of death.MethodsA total of 2,169 adult COVID-19 patients were enrolled from Wuhan, China between February 10th and April 15th, 2020. Difference analyses of medical records were performed between severe and non-severe groups as well as between survivors and non-survivors. In addition, we developed a decision tree classifier to identify risk factors for death outcome.ResultsOf the 2,169 COVID-19 patients, the median age was 61 years and male patients accounted for 48%. A total of 646 patients were diagnosed with severe illness, and 75 patients died. The most common system symptoms were respiratory, systemic and digestive symptoms. Obvious differences in demographics, clinical characteristics and laboratory examinations were found between severe and non-severe groups, as well as between survivors and non-survivors. A machine learning model was developed to predict death outcome in severe patients. The decision tree classifier included three biomarkers, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein and lactic dehydrogenase. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic of this model was 0.96. This model performed well both in train dataset and test dataset. The accuracy of this model was 0.98 and 0.98, respectively.ConclusionThe machine learning model was robust and effective in predicting the death outcome in severe COVID-19 patients.

As Mudanças No Atendimento Psicológico Durante a Pandemia De Covid-19

“…Thus, like Li et al (2020), we observed a considerable reach of YouTube as a form of communication with the public, but a critical view regarding the information about COVID-19 found on YouTube is needed.…”

“…Li et al (2020) conducted a survey on YouTube on March 21, 2020, using the keywords "coronavirus" and "COVID-19" and analyzed the 75 most viewed videos resulting from each search. Videos that were duplicate, non-English language, non-audio, non-visual, longer than 1 hour, live, and unrelated to COVID-19 were excluded.…”

“…Um sistema de vigilância, inclusive a vigilância genômica podem medir a aceleração do ritmo da pandemia. (WÜRTZEN et al, 2021) De acordo com a Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) (2020), saúde mental é o estado de bem-estar pessoal, onde se pode deparar com situações estressantes normais; trabalhar de forma produtiva para contribuir com sua comunidade e construir seu próprio potencial.…”

“…Segundo Neil et al (2020) medidas como distanciamento social, devem ser submetidas a avaliação periódica da evolução da doença, principalmente pela vigilância epidemiológica de cada país, assim é provável que medidas como o relaxamento dessas orientações de segurança e restrições sejam reavaliadas de acordo com cada momento da pandemia, ou seja períodos de aumento e decréscimo de casos da COVID 19.…”

“…De acordo com as propostas de Andrade; Ramalho (2020), ações de vigilância em saúde devem ser constantes, como a atualização de um cadastro dos idosos especificamente, como a busca ativa de idosos com sintomas respiratórios para que através de uma escuta qualificada possa ser traçado um plano de ação como modelo de atenção e prevenção comunitária de doenças respiratórias. As autoras ainda denominam essa ação mitigadora de escore de vulnerabilidade, o que traria ações mais efetivas na prevenção e diagnóstico precoce.…”