A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology

Abstract

BackgroundMalaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures.MethodsA new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns.ResultsResults for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored.ConclusionsThe ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools.

Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics

“…In the present results, we use the epidemiological modeling (EMOD) model (22,23) to simulate the effect on local mosquito populations and malaria transmission of the release of various types of genetically modified mosquitoes. The EMOD model is an individual-based stochastic model with explicit representation of vector populations, larval dynamics, adult feeding behavior, and closed-loop egg laying for one or more distinct local populations.…”

To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda?

“…More recently, models for malaria have been developed that aim to incorporate further details of the climate-driven parasite and vector life cycles (Depinay et al, 2004;Eckhoff, 2011;Lunde et al, 2013), and in some cases combine this with a SEI-type compartmental model of the disease progression in humans (Hoshen and Morse, 2004;Tompkins and Ermert, 2013). These models have been used to assess transmission variations for the seasons ahead Morse, 2010, 2012;Tompkins and Di Giuseppe, 2015;MacLeod et al, 2015), or over longer multi-decadal timescales (Caminade et al, 2014;Piontek et al, 2014).…”

Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

“…Both interventions have been extensively used as intervention tactics to reduce and control malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, as reported by numerous early and recent studies [37,39,41,43]. LSM (also known as source reduction) is one of the oldest tools in the fight against malaria.…”

“…These interventions are often applied in isolation and in combination, and their impacts have been investigated by numerous early and recent studies [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. In addition to these time-tested, established tools, new and novel intervention tactics and strategies such as new drugs, vaccines, insecticides, improved surveillance methods, etc., are also being investigated [46].…”