How do we use AI tools to integrate observations, simulated data and physical and chemical fundamentals (Focal Area 3) into model components (Focal Area 2) that have high accuracy and stability and low computational burden to improve Earth System Predictability?
Science ChallengeEarth system modeling of the hydrological cycle involves compute-intensive modules representing complex chemical and physical process. Recently, AI tools that are far less compute intensive have been developed that emulate these modules, but many of these efforts are not yet sufficiently accurate or even stable. We know a lot about the physics and chemistry of earth system processes. The Science Challenge is developing AI tools that not only incorporate observations and simulated data, but also incorporate the physics and chemistry of the process, while still maintaining the compute efficiency.
RationalePredicting extreme events in the hydrological cycle will involve high spatial resolution earth system models. The grand challenge is running global earth system models at a horizontal grid-spacing of a few hundred meters comparable to vertical resolution (rather than several hundred kms, used currently), so that fine-scale processes of aerosol and cloud microphysics, and convection and entrainment can be explicitly resolved. In many earth system models, the compute limitation resides with three modules, namely atmospheric chemistry, aerosol dynamics and radiative transfer, while the wall-clock limitation resides with dynamics and transport. Increasing horizontal spatial resolution to be comparable to the vertical resolution will dramatically increase the compute resources consumed by all of these modules. One path forward is to replace the three modules with machine-learned emulators. Current modules are based on the physics and chemistry of processes, even if they are highly parameterized. Machine-learned module replacements typically memorize data generated by the original module, achieving dramatic computational efficiency improvements, but frequently at the expense of accuracy, stability or both. New machine learning frameworks are needed that integrate all of our knowledge, including fundamental physics and chemistry along with observations or generated data within earth system models. The first such frameworks have recently been developed 1 .