A mass point vehicle scrappage model

Chen, Cynthia; Niemeier, Deb

doi:10.1016/j.trb.2004.06.003

Cited by 27 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Survival analysis is sometimes deployed in the transportation literature to identify the determinants of scrappage (see Anovar et al, 2014;Chen and Niemeier, 2005).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of emissions-based taxes on the retirement of used and inefficient vehicles: The case of Switzerland

Alberini

Bareit

Filippini

et al. 2018

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractMany countries have adopted policies designed to reduce CO 2 emissions from road vehicles. Taxes linked to the CO 2 emissions rate or the fuel economy of a vehicle (which is inversely related to its CO 2 emissions rate) are examples of such policies. These taxes are usually imposed on new vehicles, and previous evaluations have estimated the increases in the shares or sales of new and fuel-efficient vehicles associated with such taxes. In contrast, we ask whether taxes on new cars that penalize high emitters induce changes in the retirement of used and inefficient vehicles. We exploit natural experiment conditions in Switzerland to analyze the impact of two different "bonus"/"malus" schemes implemented at the cantonal level. In both schemes, the bonus rewards new efficient vehicles. The malus is retroactive in canton Obwalden, in the sense that it is charged on both new and existing high-emitting cars, but it is only applied prospectively to new cars in Geneva. We use a difference-in-difference design within a survival analysis setting. We find that a bonus/malus accelerates the retirement of existing high-emitting vehicles in Obwalden, shortening the expected lifetime of the three most popular make-models by 7 to 11 months. The effect is the opposite in Geneva, where we estimate that the expected lifetime of these three popular models is extended by 5 to 8 months. These findings have important implications about the desirability of bonus/malus schemes and on their design, as well as on old car scrappage programs.

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“…Survival analysis is sometimes deployed in the transportation literature to identify the determinants of scrappage (see Anovar et al, 2014;Chen and Niemeier, 2005).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of emissions-based taxes on the retirement of used and inefficient vehicles: The case of Switzerland

Alberini

Bareit

Filippini

et al. 2018

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Alternatively, one could estimate a hazard function for vehicle scrappage. Chen and Niemeier (2005) estimate retention rates by vehicle class (all passenger vehicles were in the same class). They use smog check data collected by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair.…”

Section: Pricing and Scrappage Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual miles drive used car prices

Engers

Hartmann

Stern

2008

J of Applied Econometrics

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SUMMARYThis paper investigates whether the net benefits from owning a vehicle, proxied by annual miles driven, explain the price declines observed over a vehicle's life. We first model the household decision on how much to drive each of its vehicles. Then we empirically establish that variation in household annual miles across brands explains observed price declines. Furthermore, the effect of vehicle age on annual miles decisions (and consequently on market value) depends on household characteristics and the composition of the vehicle stock owned.

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“…Due to its capability to capture the dynamics of a process, survival model is being increasingly used in various areas, including housing studies (Sam and Ronald 2003;Tammie and Malpezzi 2006), medical and biometrics studies (Li and Lin 2006;Freda et al 2007;Omariba et al 2007), industrial studies (Xie and Giles 2007), and policy issues (Buhaug 2005). In transportation, survival models have been used to analyze incident duration (Doohee and Fred 2000), commute time (Stefano 2003;Joly 2006), households' automobile holding duration (Yamamoto et al 2004), and vehicle scrappage rates (Chen and Niemeier 2005;Chen and Lin 2006;Lin et al 2008).…”

Section: Survival Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%