A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus (COVID­19) and Social Distancing Effect

Makanda, Gilbert

doi:10.37394/23203.2020.15.60

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 25 publications

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“…Studies done on social distancing show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Increasing social distancing could reduce the number of COVID-19 new cases by 30% according to Makanda [10]. Researchers believe that social distancing offers more advantages than drawbacks since it can serve as a nonpharmacological tool to reduce the disease's proliferation rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Assan

Nyabadza

2023

Computational and Mathematical Methods

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The data on SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in South Africa show seasonal transmission patterns to date, with the peaks having occurred in winter and summer since the outbreaks began. The transmission dynamics have mainly been driven by variations in environmental factors and virus evolution, and the two are at the center of driving the different waves of the disease. It is thus important to understand the role of seasonality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, a compartmental model with a time-dependent transmission rate is formulated and the stabilities of the steady states analyzed. We note that if R 0 < 1 , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease completely dies out; and when R 0 > 1 , the system admits a positive periodic solution, and the disease is uniformly or periodically persistent. The model is fitted to data on new cases in South Africa for the first four waves. The model results indicate the need to consider seasonality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and its importance in modeling fluctuations in the data for new cases. The potential impact of seasonality in the transmission patterns of COVID-19 and the public health implications is discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Assan

Nyabadza

2023

Computational and Mathematical Methods

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Control of Blood Sugar in Diabetes and COVID-19 Comorbidity with Physical Exercise: Modelling by Impulsive System of Differential Equations

Rattanakul

Lenbury

2023

Wseas Transactions on Systems and Control

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Considerable amount of research effort has been concentrated on modelling and predicting the progress of coronavirus infection, its impacts, and the ramifications of various measures taken by affected nations, such as social distancing, vaccination, and provision of long-term health care. More recently, medical doctors have become aware of an unexpected coronavirus complication that can emerge in a short period of time after the initial COVID-19 infection, or sometimes several months afterward. NHS research confirmed that the risk of death is increased significantly in coronavirus patients with diabetes. Our main purpose is to obtain a better understanding of the impacts of physical exercise on the glucose-insulin dynamics in patients with diabetes-COVID-19 comorbidity. To control diabetes, it is important to keep track, with the aid of an appropriate model, of one’s blood sugar levels and to know what levels are too high after a meal, while physical activity can lower your blood sugar by making your body more sensitive to insulin. Here, we, therefore, propose and analyse a model of the glucose-insulin control system, comorbidity of coronavirus infection, that incorporates variations in blood sugar due to food intake as well as the role that exercising can take in keeping plasma glucose at a suitable level. The solutions of the model are shown to be bounded and persistent under suitable conditions on the system parameters. The stability and periodicity of the system are also investigated. The delineating conditions on pertinent physical parameters that allow us to obtain the desired outcome are interpreted and discussed.

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Financial Situation of Hospitals in Europe

Naruć

2022

Wseas Transactions on Business and Economics

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Since 2020, the world has been facing a global pandemic of the infectious disease COVID-19 caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It has a negative impact not only on the economy of individual countries, but also on the financial and property situation of business entities, and thus on the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world. The aim of this article is to present the results of the study and an assessment in terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the financial situation of hospitals in Europe after the first year of the pandemic in relation to the situation several years before the pandemic. The study covered the period from 2017 to 2020. An economic analysis based on basic statistical characteristics was conducted using the financial data of a survey population of 8,995 private and public hospital operating companies in Europe, including 2,769 from Western Europe and 6,226 from Eastern Europe. The research hypothesis was confirmed only for operating income (turnover), current ratio and solvency ratio, while it was not confirmed for asset situation. For the other analyzed economic quantities, heterogeneous results were obtained depending on the region of Europe in which the hospital is located.

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A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus (COVID19) and Social Distancing Effect

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Control of Blood Sugar in Diabetes and COVID-19 Comorbidity with Physical Exercise: Modelling by Impulsive System of Differential Equations

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Financial Situation of Hospitals in Europe

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A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus (COVID­19) and Social Distancing Effect

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

Control of Blood Sugar in Diabetes and COVID-19 Comorbidity with Physical Exercise: Modelling by Impulsive System of Differential Equations

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Financial Situation of Hospitals in Europe

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A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus (COVID19) and Social Distancing Effect