A meta-analysis of estimates of the AIDS incubation distribution

Cooley, Phillip; Myers, Lawrence E.; Hamill, David

doi:10.1007/bf00145410

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The log-logistic distribution is another choice for modeling incubation times [4,13]. The incubation time T has a log-logistic distribution with the density function if Z in (1) follows a standard logistic distribution with the density g…”

Section: Useful Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of COVID-19 Incubation Times

Charvadeh

Bian

et al. 2021

Stat Biosci

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To confine the spread of an infectious disease, setting a sensible quarantine time is crucial. To this end, it is imperative to well understand the distribution of incubation times of the disease. Regarding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, 14-days is commonly taken as a quarantine time to curb the virus spread in balancing the impacts of COVID-19 on diverse aspects of the society, including public health, economy, and humanity perspectives, etc. However, setting a sensible quarantine time is not trivial and it depends on various underlying factors. In this article, we take an angle of examining the distribution of the COVID-19 incubation time using likelihoodbased methods. Our study is carried out on a dataset of 178 COVID-19 cases dated from January 20, 2020 to February 29, 2020, with the information of exposure periods and dates of symptom onset collected. To gain a good understanding of possible scenarios, we employ different models to describe incubation times of COVID-19. Our findings suggest that statistically, the 14-day quarantine time may not be long enough to control the probability of an early release of infected individuals to be small. While the size of the study data is not large enough to offer us a definitely acceptable quarantine time, and further in practice, the decision-makers may take account of other factors related to social and economic concerns to set up a practically acceptable quarantine time, our study demonstrates useful methods to determine a reasonable quarantine time from a statistical standpoint. Further, it reveals some associated complexity for fully understanding the COVID-19 incubation time distribution.

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Section: Useful Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of COVID-19 Incubation Times

Charvadeh

Bian

et al. 2021

Stat Biosci

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“…These variations add to the cell-particle interaction and generate larger fluctuations and a ''fat tail'' in the probability distribution, which eventually develops a stretched exponential (Weibull) shape. The Weibull distribution has been used to describe a number of phenomena and processes in engineering and medicine (30), including cardiac contractions (48), time between events of the disease paroxysmal atrial fibrillations (49), and in modeling some epidemics (50). In our case, we believe that the simplest interpretation of our results is as a type of relaxation phenomena in which the system fluctuates out of equilibrium in response to environmental pressure: the viruses employ spontaneous mutations in a strategy to reach a more stable state.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance of virus to extinction on bottleneck passages: Study of a decaying and fluctuating pattern of fitness loss

Lázaro

Escarmı́s

Pérez–Mercader

et al. 2003

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

108

101

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RNA viruses display high mutation rates and their populations replicate as dynamic and complex mutant distributions, termed viral quasispecies. Repeated genetic bottlenecks, which experimentally are carried out through serial plaque-to-plaque transfers of the virus, lead to fitness decrease (measured here as diminished capacity to produce infectious progeny). Here we report an analysis of fitness evolution of several low fitness foot-and-mouth disease virus clones subjected to 50 plaque-to-plaque transfers. Unexpectedly, fitness decrease, rather than being continuous and monotonic, displayed a fluctuating pattern, which was influenced by both the virus and the state of the host cell as shown by effects of recent cell passage history. The amplitude of the fluctuations increased as fitness decreased, resulting in a remarkable resistance of virus to extinction. Whereas the frequency distribution of fitness in control (independent) experiments follows a log-normal distribution, the probability of fitness values in the evolving bottlenecked populations fitted a Weibull distribution. We suggest that multiple functions of viral genomic RNA and its encoded proteins, subjected to high mutational pressure, interact with cellular components to produce this nontrivial, fluctuating pattern. RNA viruses mutate at rates in the range of 10 Ϫ3 to 10 Ϫ5 base substitutions per nucleotide copied (1, 2). These values are several orders of magnitude larger than those normally encountered during replication of viral DNA and many orders of magnitude greater than that of cellular DNA (3, 4). One of the consequences of these high mutation rates is that RNA virus populations are composed of ensembles of closely related, nonidentical genomes that are known as viral quasispecies (5-10). Viral quasispecies evolve as a result of competition, selection, and random sampling events acting on continuously arising mutant genomes. A viral quasispecies is generally dominated by one or several most-fit genomes surrounded by a mutant spectrum whose components rank according to their relative fitness in the environment in which replication takes place (7, 9, 10). Fitness is defined here as the relative replication capacity of viruses measured in growth competition experiments (11,12).Alterations in population size have a decisive effect in the evolution of fitness of viral quasispecies. Large population passages of RNA viruses often result in fitness gains (13-16). In contrast to this finding, repeated bottleneck passages (experimentally carried out by plaque-to-plaque transfers of a virus; compare Fig. 1) are known to result in average fitness losses of a number of different . Such losses have been interpreted as an accentuation of Muller's ratchet (21), or accumulation of deleterious mutations predicted to occur in asexual populations of organisms when no compensatory mechanisms such as sex or recombination operate (17-25). In the case of the important viral pathogen foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a representative of the RNA family of virus ter...

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“…Neighborhoods 33 and adjustments for case definition changes and treatment with zidovudine. 27,34 Estimates of AIDS deaths were obtained from city public health departments.The back calculations used MSM population size estimates for each city derived from the present study.…”

Section: Continuedmentioning

confidence: 99%

The continuing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men

2001

Am J Public Health

277

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OBJECTIVES: This study characterized the AIDS epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: A probability sample of MSM was obtained in 1997 (n = 2881; 18 years and older) from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Francisco, and HIV status was determined through self-report and biological measures. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 17% (95% confidence interval = 15%, 19%) overall, with extremely high levels in African Americans (29%), MSM who used injection drugs (40%), "ultraheavy" noninjection drug users (32%), and less educated men (< high school, 37%). City-level HIV differences were non-significant once these other factors were controlled for. In comparing the present findings with historical data based on public records and modeling, HIV prevalence appears to have declined as a result of high mortality (69%) and stable, but high, incidence rates (1%-2%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the findings suggest that HIV prevalence has declined significantly from the mid-1980s, current levels among urban MSM in the United States approximate those of sub-Saharan countries (e.g., 14%-25%) and are extremely high in many population subsegments. Despite years of progress, the AIDS epidemic continues unabated among subsegments of the MSM community.

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A meta-analysis of estimates of the AIDS incubation distribution

Cited by 9 publications

References 31 publications

Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of COVID-19 Incubation Times

Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of COVID-19 Incubation Times

Resistance of virus to extinction on bottleneck passages: Study of a decaying and fluctuating pattern of fitness loss

The continuing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men

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