A metapopulation approach to identify targets for Wolbachia-based dengue control

Abstract

Over the last decade, the release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti into the natural habitat of this mosquito species has become the most sustainable and long-lasting technique to prevent and control vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, zika, or chikungunya. However, the limited resources to generate such mosquitoes and their effective distribution in large areas dominated by the Aedes aegypti vector represent a challenge for policymakers. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework for the spread of dengue in which competition between wild and Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, the cross-contagion patterns between humans and vectors, the heterogeneous distribution of the human population in different areas, and the mobility flows between them are combined. Our framework allows us to identify the most effective areas for the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to achieve a large decrease in the global dengue prevalence.

Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

“…This division creates a SIR-SI model which is the compartmental dynamics adopted in our work. Alternative approaches for the study of the transmission of DENV include the Ross-Macdonald epidemic model [21] or the addition of further compartments to capture the growth dynamics of the vector population [22, 23]. In all these approaches, the main goal is to define control strategies that favor the eradication of the virus in humans population in a population.…”

Effects of human mobility on the spread of Dengue in the region of Caldas, Colombia

“…This division creates a SIR-SI model which is the compartmental dynamics adopted in our work. Alternative approaches to the study of DENV transmission include the Ross-Macdonald epidemic model [21] where the gradual acquisition of immunity in humans is ignored or the addition of further compartments to capture the growth dynamics of the vector population [22,23]. In all these approaches, the main goal is to define control strategies that favor the eradication of the virus in human populations.…”

“…Most of the control strategies rely on improving hygiene measures, the use of pesticides or, more recently, the release of Wolbachia-infected vectors in high incidence habitats [23]. However, human behavior plays an important role in the geographical spread of pathogens [24,25], and vector-borne diseases are not the exception.…”