A method for evaluating operational implications of regulatory constraints on Arctic shipping

Browne, Thomas; Tran, Trung Tien; Veitch, Brian; Smith, Doug; Khan, Faisal; Taylor, Rocky

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104839

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…1, the PC provisions are completed by the 'Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System' (POLARIS) that evaluates vessel operational capacities in different ice conditions as per the ship class (IMO, 2016). As the 'Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System' (AIRSS), POLARIS has a direct impact on the ship's operational evaluation and supports the decision-makers for a safer route (Fedi et al, 2018b) while it also shows some limitations (Bergström et al, 2022;Browne et al, 2022;Lee et al, 2021).…”

Section: Nep Flows Risk Models and Mitigation Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Fedi,

Faury,

Etienne

et al. 2024

Marine Policy

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Section: Nep Flows Risk Models and Mitigation Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Fedi,

Faury,

Etienne

et al. 2024

Marine Policy

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“…The first type is risk assessment by considering risk probability or empirical formula. The other type adopts a standardized risk quantification framework that combines critical navigation conditions (such as the sea ice index in the sea ice regional navigation system issued by Transport Canada, and the risk index in POLARIS issued by the International Maritime Organization) (Browne et al, 2022).…”

Section: Polar Navigation Safetymentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic weather routing: a review of ship performance models and ice routing algorithms

Liu,

Wang,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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With the accelerated melting of the Arctic sea ice, the opening of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic is becoming increasingly accessible. Nevertheless, the constantly changing natural environment of the Arctic and its multiple impacts on vessel navigation performance have resulted in a lack of confidence in the outcomes of polar automated route planning. This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of two distinct models by examining the advancements in two essential components of e-navigation, namely ship performance methods and ice routing algorithms. We also seek to provide an outlook on the future directions of model development. Furthermore, through comparative experiments, we have examined the existing research on ice path planning and pointed out promising research directions in future Arctic Weather Routing research.

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“…However, for the route planning with ice data of limited resolution, one problem is that there may be only one ice type in a localized area (e.g., Medium First Year Ice less than 1 m thick), and the POLARIS degenerates to the point that the operational risk is evaluated by ice thickness only, while weakening the influence of sea ice concentration, which is obviously not sufficient for route planning for polar cruise ships with finite propulsion power. Such consideration also stems from the apprehension of some captains regarding the results of risk estimates from POLARIS, which permit navigation in hazardous ice areas beyond the ship's capability [13]. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a continuous mapping relationship between various ice conditions and safe speeds based on the propulsion performance of the ship in ice, rather than recommending a single speed limitation for a wide range of ice conditions as POLARIS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Route Planning of a Polar Cruise Ship Based on the Experimental Prediction of Propulsion Performance in Ice

Huang,

Sun,

Sun

et al. 2023

JMSE

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The effective assessment of risk and speed limitations in ice are critical for the route planning of polar cruise ships. While the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) is widely used to evaluate the operational risk in ice, its scope of assessment is limited to the ship’s assigned ice class. For a specific ship with a given ice class, the propulsion performance under varying ice conditions is more essential for assessing the besetting risk and finding an optimal route. To establish a more detailed risk evaluation method for a PC6 class polar cruise ship, propulsion performance under various ice conditions is obtained via model tests in an ice tank. During the tests, the tow force, propeller torque, and thrust are measured under different ship velocities and propeller rotation rates, and the relations between required delivered power (P) and ship velocity (V) under the tested ice thicknesses and concentrations are obtained and extended to other ice conditions by curve fitting. A new risk index outcome, RIO*, is proposed after POLARIS according to the optimized load ranges of the ship’s rated power. Four risk levels, including low, medium, high, and unnavigable, are classified with the required propulsion power in ice being 50%, 85%, 100%, and >100% of the rated power, respectively. The recommended speed limit for each risk level is proposed based on the economical service speed of 11 kn, the operational limit of 3 kn by POLARIS and the minimum speed of 0.5 kn to avoid besetting, respectively. Based on the RIO* and P–V relations, the speed map for varying ice thicknesses and concentrations can be calculated. On these bases, a route planning simulation for the present polar cruise ship is performed. Results of the case study show that 29% of the simulated area is identified as “unnavigable” by the present procedure, while only 8% is detected by POLARIS.

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A method for evaluating operational implications of regulatory constraints on Arctic shipping

Cited by 11 publications

References 22 publications

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Arctic weather routing: a review of ship performance models and ice routing algorithms

Route Planning of a Polar Cruise Ship Based on the Experimental Prediction of Propulsion Performance in Ice

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