A Method for Technology Selection Based on Benefit, Available Schedule and Budget Resources

Abstract

The accepted paradigm in aerospace systems design was to design systems sequentially and iteratively to maximize performance based on minimum weight. The traditional paradigm does not work in the rapidly changing global environment. A paradigm shift from the norm of "design for performance" to "design for affordability and quality" has been occurring in recent decades to respond to the changing global environment. Observations were made regarding new tenets needed to bridge the gap from the old to the new. These tenets include new methods and techniques for designing complex systems due to uncertainty and mulitdimensionality, consideration of the life cycle of the system, and the methods needed to assess breakthrough technologies to meet aggressive goals of the future. The Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection method was proposed as a possible solution to the paradigm shift. In particular, refinements of selection approaches were presented and included scoring models, technology frontiers, and resource allocation. Each of the approaches provided a different viewpoint of the same problem of selecting the best mix of technologies to maximize customer satisfaction. The new elements of the selection step were applied to a High Speed Civil Transport concept. This concept was chosen due to the technically challenging customer requirements and the need for breakthrough technologies over present capabilities. The new selection approaches deemed three technologies worthy of scarce resource monies for further development and include composite fuselage structures, hybrid laminar flow control, and advanced flight deck systems, such as synthetic vision. Finally, to meet imposed noise regulations, an advanced engine concept must also be pursued to ensure compliance with FAA regulations.

Risk-Based Approach to Assessment of Advanced Technologies for Conceptual Design

“…1,7,8 Similarly, the motive is to have a capability to identify high payoff technology areas with minimal investment and resources expenditure to direct research and development resources. The general framework follows a fairly conventional approach, where a baseline system is identified and incremental changes to variables from the design space are applied (i.e.…”

“…System developers naturally tend to adhere to incremental improvements rather than significant advances due to the risk and investment cost involved. 1 For aerospace programs, which can take 5 to 15 years to develop, it is even more critical to determine early on which advanced technologies to include. Financial commitments are usually established during the earlier phase of the design, meaning that new technological solutions have to be identified and assessed when the business case is being determined.…”

A New Method of Architecture Selection for Launch Vehicles

“…This method has demonstrated its effectiveness through various design projects: e.g., supersonic business jet, 22 missiles, 23 and helicopters. 5 More background on this methodology is available in Kirby et al 21,24,25 Probabilistic design of launch vehicles is more complicated than the aforementioned applications though. Design spaces of such vehicles are sometimes discontinuous and require higher order meta-models.…”

Risk-based Approach to Assessment of Advanced Technologies for Conceptual Design

“…On another end of the spectrum, approaches such as technology forecasting use multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) methods to take a more quantitative approach to assessing technology impacts [7] , [12] , [13]. Similarly, the motive is to have a capability to identify high payoff technology areas with minimal investment and resources expenditure to direct research and development resources.…”

“…System developers naturally tend to adhere to incremental improvements rather than significant advances due to the risk and investment cost involved [7]. Depending on the system, advanced technologies can take on very different roles in the program.…”