A method for threshold selection in load extrapolation based on multiple criteria decision-making technology

Abstract

In order to establish an accurate peak over threshold (POT) model for reasonable load extrapolation, a new threshold selection method based on multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) technology is proposed. The fitting test criterion is taken into consideration in the method. For each candidate threshold, the fitting values of several fitting test criteria are integrated into a comprehensive evaluation value through entropy method and MCDM technology. The threshold corresponding to the minimum comprehensive evaluation value is assumed as the optimal threshold. A random simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the method and to compare them with other literature methods. Genuine load data are applied the proposed method. Both the results shown that the proposed method could be seen as an additional method that complements existing threshold selection methods.