A Method for Transmission System Expansion Planning Considering Probabilistic Reliability Criteria

Abstract

Abstract-This paper proposes a method for choosing the best transmission system expansion plan considering a probabilistic reliability criterion LOLE . The method minimizes the investment budget for constructing new transmission lines subject to probabilistic reliability criteria, which consider the uncertainties of transmission system elements. Two probabilistic reliability criteria are used as constraints. One is a transmission system reliability criterion LOLE constraint, and the other is a bus/nodal reliability criterion LOLE constraint. The proposed method models the transmission system expansion problem as an integer programming problem. It solves for the optimal strategy using a probabilistic branch and bound method that utilizes a network flow approach and the maximum flow-minimum cut set theorem. Test results on an existing 21-bus system are included in the paper. They demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method for solving the transmission system expansion planning problem subject to practical future uncertainties.Index Terms-Branch and bound, probabilistic reliability criteria, transmission system planning.

Reliability Standards for the Operation and Planning of Future Electricity Networks

“…Furthermore, given that network security is provided mainly through asset redundancy, this approach may create a barrier against innovation in network operation and design, and prevent the implementation of technically effective and economically efficient solutions that could enhance the utilization of the existing network assets and maximize value for the users of the network. Over the last decade in particular, significant investigations (Siddiqi and Baughman, 1995;Dalton III et al, 1996;Strbac et al, 1998;Ni et al, 2003;McCalley et al, 1999;McCalley et al, 2000;McCalley et al, 2004;Choi et al, 2005;Xiao and McCalley, 2007;Jirutitijaroen and Singh, 2008;Moreno et al, 2013;North American Reliability Corporation, 1996) have questioned this historical approach to electricity network operation and design, and provided growing evidence that a radically different paradigm may be needed to facilitate a cost-effective delivery of energy policy objectives, particularly in relation to integrating low-carbon generation, and application of smart grid technologies. In several jurisdictions North American Reliability Corporation, 1996;Gleadow et al, 2009;Araneda, 2009;CIGRE, 2010), electricity distribution and transmission network reliability standards and practices have been reviewed and modified.…”

“…Such a deterministic standard might be good on average but it will not be appropriate for any individual event. Therefore, a probabilistic approach must be used to adequately identify the risk for each individual event as shown in Strbac et al, 2011;Moreno et al, 2012;Kirschen and Jayaweera, 2007;Kariuki and Allan, 1996;He et al, 2010;Dalton III et al, 1996;McCalley et al, 2004;Choi et al, 2005;Xiao and McCalley, 2007;Jirutitijaroen and Singh, 2008;Moreno et al, 2013;North American Reliability Corporation, 1996;Gleadow et al, 2009;Araneda, 2009;CIGRE, 2010;and Moreno et al, 2010a. It is fundamentally problematic to apply corrective control in a deterministic framework since its post-fault cost impacts, which could be significant, would be ignored (for instance, post-fault cost associated with operating SPS over demand and generation can be as high as £30,000/MWh and £400,000/trip, respectively). 1 Hence deterministic criteria can be applied through mainly preventive control since applying corrective control actions in a deterministic framework that fundamentally ignores corresponding costs, would clearly lead to a suboptimal solution.…”

Active distribution networks planning with integration of demand response

“…A stochastic formulation of load margin taking into account the uncertainties related to RES integration into the network is proposed in [6]. In [7], a probabilistic reliability criterion considering uncertainties related to component outage in the expansion planning is proposed. Moreover, the method minimizes the investment budget for constructing new transmission lines considering the uncertainties of the transmission system.…”

When are Decentralized Infrastructure Networks Preferable to Centralized Ones?

“…The second is to consider a design objective that incorporates the costs of network operation, network expansion, and network (un)reliability. While joint planning and operations models have been devised for incremental expansion decisions [25], [26], [27], and for optimal topology control applications (e.g., [28], [29]), our approach is different in its consideration of a flexible greenfield infrastructure build problem that does not, for example, restrict infrastructure expansion options to pre-defined paths or represent branches as binary integer variables. Detailed approaches such as the above are useful for solving particular engineering problems, but the results do not often reveal statistical insight that could lead to the discovery of more general principles underlying the design of optimal networks.…”