A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

Abstract

Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.

Data-Driven Smart Eco-Cities of the Future: An Empirically Informed Integrated Model for Strategic Sustainable Urban Development

“…This study employs case study approach to develop an integrated model for strategic sustainable urban development. The case study approach, which is described in more detail by Bibri (2020c), was used to illuminate the urban phenomena of eco-cities, data-driven smart cities, and environmentally data-driven smart sustainable cities by examining and comparing two cases within each of these analytical frameworks from a total of four of the ecologically and technologically leading cities in Europe. Generally, case study is a descriptive qualitative approach that is used as a tool to study specific characteristics of a complex phenomenon.…”

Data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future: urban computing and intelligence for strategic, short-term, and joined-up planning

“…The case study approach, which is associated with the empirical phase of the futures study, was adopted to examine and compare two cases with respect to each of the phenomena of compact cities, smart eco-cities, data-driven smart cities, and environmentally data-driven smart sustainable cities. Bibri (2020b) dedicates a whole article to the methodological framework applied in the futures study, which combines a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches as well as descriptive case study design. The latter is what this paper is concerned with in terms of empirically informing the analysis of the strategic and innovative planning approaches associated with the development and design of data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future.…”

“…Therefore, sustainable urbanism is increasingly emphasizing the importance of big data technologies and their novel applications in improving and advancing sustainability. This trend is evinced by many topical studies carried out recently on sustainable cities, especially ecocities (e.g., Bibri, 2020aBibri, , 2021aBibri, , 2021bBibri & Krogstie, 2020a, 2020b, 2020cHakpyeong et al 2021;Shahrokni, Årman, Lazarevic, Nilsson, & Brandt, 2015;Sun & Du, 2017;Thornbush & Golubchikov, 2019;Späth, 2017;Tomor et al 2019;Yigitcanlar & Cugurullo, 2020). This implies that the recent advances in urban computing and intelligence associated with monitoring, understanding, analyzing, planning, and managing smart cities are increasingly being adopted by sustainable cities to boost and maintain their performance with respect to sustainability-under what has been termed "data-driven smart sustainable cities" (Bibri & Krogstie, 2021).…”

The underlying components of data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future: a case study approach to an applied theoretical framework

“…This study employs a case study approach to develop an applied theoretical framework for strategic sustainable urban development planning. The case study approach, which is described in more detail by Bibri [8,9], was used first to illuminate the urban phenomena of compact cities, smart eco-cities, data-driven smart cities, and environmentally data-driven smart sustainable cities by examining and comparing two cases within each of these analytical frameworks from a total of six of the ecologically and technologically leading cities in Europe. Generally, the case study is a descriptive qualitative approach that is used as a tool to study specific characteristics of a complex phenomenon.…”