A Methodology for Automated Trajectory Prediction Analysis

Gong, Chester; McNally, Dave

doi:10.2514/6.2004-4788

Cited by 58 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…These errors can result in faulty, late, or missed conflict detections and generally require that trajectory and conflict analysis methods are robust to uncertainty. Aggregate CTAS trajectory prediction errors based on analysis of hundreds of actual en route trajectories can be on the order of 2-3 nmi (1-sigma) for 10 min level flight trajectory predictions, and 1000-2000 ft (1-sigma) for 5 min climbing flight trajectory predictions [Gong and McNally, 2004]. A number of methods are employed in CTAS to mitigate the effects of uncertainty including updating trajectory predictions at every radar track update, employing expanded separation criteria for conflict detection (e.g., 7 nmi horizontal and 1500 ft vertical for climbing or descending aircraft), and the use of uncertaintybased conflict probability analysis to filter low probability conflicts .…”

Section: Simulation Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the methodology in [Gong and McNally, 2004] is applied to compare the aggregate uncertainty of trajectory predictions based fully on actual traffic data with those based on simulated traffic data that is only initialized with actual traffic. The results, presented in the Appendix, show that the trajectory uncertainty inherent to the simulation methodology applied in this study is roughly on the same order of magnitude as the trajectory uncertainty present under actual traffic conditions.…”

Section: Simulation Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The trajectory accuracy analysis methodology described in [Gong and McNally, 2004] uses large numbers of trajectory predictions to provide an aggregate measure of accuracy, which reflects the combined effect of all errors sources such as wind, speed, and weight. Error characteristics are categorized as a function of flight phase (level, climbing, descending) and lookahead time.…”

Section: Appendix-trajectory Prediction Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Concept and Laboratory Analysis of Trajectory-Based Automation for Separation Assurance

McNally

Gong

2007

Air Traffic Control Quarterly

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An operating concept and a laboratory analysis methodology were developed and tested to examine how four-dimensional trajectory analysis methods could support higher levels of automation for separation assurance in the National Airspace System. Real-time simulations were conducted in which a human controller generated conflict resolution trajectories using an automated trial plan trajectory generation and analysis function, but only in response to conflicts detected and displayed by an automatic conflict detection function. Objective metrics were developed to compare aircraft separation characteristics and flying time efficiency under automated operations with that of today's operations using common airspace and common traffic scenarios. Simulations were based on recorded air traffic data from the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center and were conducted using today's and nearly two-times today's traffic levels. The results suggest that a single controller using trajectory-based automation and data link communication of control clearances to aircraft could manage substantially more traffic than under today's conditions, and with improved route efficiency while maintaining separation. The simulation and analysis capability provides a basis for further analysis of semi-automated, or fully automated, separation assurance concepts.

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Section: Simulation Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulation Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix-trajectory Prediction Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Concept and Laboratory Analysis of Trajectory-Based Automation for Separation Assurance

McNally

Gong

2007

Air Traffic Control Quarterly

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“…Con el fin de poder disminuir el campo de incertidumbre, se utilizan diferentes tipos de procedimientos (Gong & McNally, 2004;Frencl & Do Val, 2012, May;Ching, Yongzhi, Chin & Mital, 1998) que mediante métodos matemáticos pretenden prever la trayectoria del objeto, disminuyendo las probabilidades de incluir en la trayectoria puntos que no sean debidos a esta. Incluso se están trabajando algoritmos que no sólo garantizan cálculos precisos de trayectoria, sino que tienen en cuenta las condiciones del terreno (topografía, vegetación entre otros) y posiciones radar (lugar de ubicación de cada radar con respecto a la posición de la traza) para evitar su detección utilizando algoritmos matemáticos (Pelosi, Kopp & Brown, 2012, Sept).…”

Section: Tracking Radar Y Seguimiento De Aeronavesunclassified

Tracking y Multitracking Radar

Zuluaga

2013

Ciencia y Poder Aéreo

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Los Sistemas de Defensa Aérea y del Sistema de Control de Mando (C2) son sistemas críticos en el que cada etapa afecta el rendimiento y el error medio del sistema de todos. El Centro de Desarrollo Tecnológico Aeroespacial para la Defensa -CETAD ha estado trabajando para desarrollar técnicas de rastreo para satisfacer las necesidades de la Fuerza Aérea de Colombia, como se explica en este artículo. ResumenThe Air Defense Systems and Command Control System (C2) are critical systems in which each stage affects the performance and the average error of the all system. The Center for the Development of Aerospace Defense Technology -CETAD have been working to develop tracking techniques to suit the needs of the Air Force of Colombia, as discussed in this article. Abstract 1El artículo de investigación es derivado del proyecto titulado Sistema de Comando y Control Colombiano "HORUS" en su primera etapa, apoyado por el Comando de la FAC, la Jefatura de Operaciones Aéreas y el Comando Aéreo de Combate N°5, el Centro de Desarrollo Tecnológico Aeroespacial para la Defensa. El Autor desarrolla los algoritmos aquí descritos para dar solución a los problemas de esta naturaleza.

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“…Objects with significant apparent motion are easily detected by any methods of the trajectory determination, for example, the methods for inter-frame processing (Garcia et al 2008;Gong et al 2004;Vavilova et al 2012b). The problem arises when we would like to detect an object with a near-zero apparent motion in CCD-frame series.…”

Section: Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method of immediate detection of objects with a near-zero apparent motion in series of CCD-frames

Savanevych

Khlamov

Vavilova

et al. 2018

A&A

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The paper deals with a computational method for detection of the solar system minor bodies (SSOs), whose inter-frame shifts in series of CCD-frames during the observation are commensurate with the errors in measuring their positions. These objects have velocities of apparent motion between CCD-frames not exceeding three rms errors (3σ) of measurements of their positions. About 15% of objects have a near-zero apparent motion in CCD-frames, including the objects beyond the Jupiter's orbit as well as the asteroids heading straight to the Earth. The proposed method for detection of the object's near-zero apparent motion in series of CCD-frames is based on the Fisher f -criterion instead of using the traditional decision rules that are based on the maximum likelihood criterion. We analyzed the quality indicators of detection of the object's near-zero apparent motion applying statistical and in situ modeling techniques in terms of the conditional probability of the true detection of objects with a near-zero apparent motion. The efficiency of method being implemented as a plugin for the Collection Light Technology (CoLiTec) software for automated asteroids and comets detection has been demonstrated. Among the objects discovered with this plugin, there was the sungrazing comet C/2012 S1 (ISON). Within 26 min of the observation, the comet's image has been moved by three pixels in a series of four CCD-frames (the velocity of its apparent motion at the moment of discovery was equal to 0.8 pixels per CCD-frame; the image size on the frame was about five pixels). Next verification in observations of asteroids with a near-zero apparent motion conducted with small telescopes has confirmed an efficiency of the method even in bad conditions (strong backlight from the full Moon). So, we recommend applying the proposed method for series of observations with four or more frames.

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A Methodology for Automated Trajectory Prediction Analysis

Cited by 58 publications

References 4 publications

Concept and Laboratory Analysis of Trajectory-Based Automation for Separation Assurance

Concept and Laboratory Analysis of Trajectory-Based Automation for Separation Assurance

Tracking y Multitracking Radar

A method of immediate detection of objects with a near-zero apparent motion in series of CCD-frames

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