A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change

Abstract

18Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if 19 successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and 20 consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate 21 mitigation scenarios, we present the modelling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle 22 assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multi-23 regional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources 24 up to 2050 under a 2°C scenario. We call the result of this modelling "Technology Hybridized 25Environmental-economic Model with Integrated Scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we 26 apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-27 cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2/kWh across different 28 world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2/kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data 29 yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic 30 life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale 31 policies in the long-term. 32 Introduction 33A 2°C global average temperature increase is considered the threshold above which global 34 warming consequences on human health, ecosystems, and resources might be disastrous. 35Pathways incorporating a combination of a shift towards low-carbon energy technologies, 36 efficiency improvements, and a decrease in final consumption present various ways to reduce 37 greenhouse gas emissions as means to reach climate targets. In effect, climate change 38 mitigation demands large-scale technology change on a global level and, if successful, will 39 significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. Understanding the 40 3 future life cycle implications of this substantial change requires a modeling of technological 41 deployments in the global economy. 42In general, life cycle assessment (LCA) studies provide static snapshots of systems at a given 43 moment in the past or in a hypothetical future for a given region. In contrast, energy scenario 44 models trace fuel chains, and do not account for the life cycle aspects related to the energy 45 systems' infrastructure. This paper demonstrates a methodology that combines these 46 approaches to overcome the shortcomings of each. Depending on the large scale impact of a 47 certain technology's deployment, the whole life cycle impact of any given product may be 48 affected. Modifications predicted in climate change mitigation roadmaps address all sectors of 49 the economy, from electricity generation through transportation to cement production. It is 50 therefore essential to assess these modifications based on a model that contains all life cycle 51 phases of both existing and emerging technologies. We illustrate this approach in the present paper by applying the resulting model on...

Assessing circularity interventions: a review of EEIOA-based studies

“…For example, by fixing technical coefficients of a circular economy scenario, EEIOA cannot capture the volume effects on prices as well as price effects on the use of certain products. Without additional model components (see, for example, Gibon et al 2015), EEIOA has also limited opportunities to represent changes of energy systems in the future with environmental impacts that are different from the current way of production. Moreover, there is no direct feedback effect from nature to the economy in standard EEIOA, which restricts the assessment of different circularity gains.…”

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

“…Seven of the reviewed papers were methodological papers or a combination of a methodological paper applied in a specific case [31,44,50,58,78,87,108], while the remaining articles were primarily case studies. Apart from the methodological papers, few of the reviewed articles clearly described the reasons for the choice of assessment method in the first place, although some discussed the benefits of having used a specific method.…”

“…For example, when it comes to substantial technological changes, Gibon et al [108] developed an approach where LCA and IOA databases were adapted for a future scenario in line with a 2-degree global warming. Such a scenario implies radical technological changes in most industrial sectors.…”

Development of a methodological framework for social life-cycle assessment of novel technologies

“…An alternative explored here is to link data on micro-economic cost and labour costs of all foreground processes per functional unit to a Multi-Regional Input Output model (e.g. the THEMIS MRIO model; Wood et al 2013;Gibon et al 2015). THEMIS is a scenario based input-output model which covers both the production and consumption perspectives.…”