A methodology to diagnose the effect of climate change and to identify adaptive strategies to reduce its impacts in conjunctive-use systems at basin scale

Pulido-Velázquez, David; Garrote, Luís; Andreu, Joaquín; Martín-Carrasco, Francisco; Iglesias, Ana

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.05.014

Cited by 56 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 25 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Resilience measures the probability of a successful period followed by a period of failures [53]. According to Hoque et al [54], it measures the rate of success in a system (Equation (7)).…”

Section: Indices Of the Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

Hernández-Bedolla¹,

Solera²,

Paredes-Arquiola³

et al. 2017

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Integrated water resource management (IWRM) is facing great challenges due to growing uncertainties caused by climate change (CC), rapid socio-economic and technological changes, and population growth. In the present study, we have developed different indices to assess the availability of water using an IWRM approach. These indices evaluate supply to demands, surface availability, groundwater availability, reservoirs, and environmental flow. Moreover, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were determined. Sustainability index (SI) and sustainability index by groups (SG) were determined based on the five indices (all indices vary from 0 to 1). The impacts of climate change affect surface and groundwater availability, as do the agricultural, urban, and industrial requirements on the different supplies. We used the generalized AQUATOOL Decision Support System Shell (DSSS) to evaluate the IWRM in the Rio Grande Basin (Morelia, México). Various emission scenarios from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were applied to the basin for the years 2015-2039 and 2075-2099. The results indicate increases in agricultural and urban demand, and decreases in surface runoff, as well as groundwater recharge. The proposed indices are useful for different approaches (decision-makers, water policy, and drought risks, among others). CC significantly affects the different proposed indices and indicates a decrease of the SI, SG 1 , and SG 2 (i.e., less availability). For example, we found that SG 2 decreased from 0.812 to 0.195 under the RCP 8.

show abstract

Section: Indices Of the Integrated Water Resource Management (Iwrm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

Hernández-Bedolla¹,

Solera²,

Paredes-Arquiola³

et al. 2017

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…According to Iglesias [30], the effects of climate change in terms of (increased) demands in the basin will reach approximately 7%. However, due to the uncertain economic future, other authors prefer to consider a sensitivity analysis of plus and minus 10% irrigation demand, as this represents a pessimistic scenario dominated by physical changes, and an optimistic scenario driven by policy adjustments [31]. A code is used to summarise each of the water schemes evaluated according to the two scenarios.…”

Section: Water Management Scenarios Under Climate Change Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Managed Aquifer Recharge System for Irrigation under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain

Rupérez-Moreno

Pérez‐Sánchez

Senent‐Aparicio

et al. 2017

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Droughts and climate change in regions with profitable irrigated agriculture will impact groundwater resources with associated direct and indirect impacts. In the integrated water resource management (IWRM), managed aquifer recharge (MAR) offers efficient solutions to protect, conserve, and ensure survival of aquifers and associated ecosystems, as the Water Framework Directive requires. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the socio-economic feasibility of the MAR system in the overexploited Boquerón aquifer in Hellín (Albacete, Spain) under climate change and varying irrigation demand conditions. To assess, in monetary terms, the profitability of the MAR system, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been carried out. The results for the period 2020-2050 showed that the most favourable situations would be scenarios involving artificial recharge, in which future irrigation demand remains at the present level or falls below 10% of the current irrigation surface, as these scenarios generated an internal rate of return of between 53% and 57%. Additionally, the regeneration of the habitat will take between 5 and 9 years. Thus, the IWRM with artificial recharge will guarantee the sustainability of irrigation of the agricultural lands of Hellín and will achieve water balance even in severe climate change conditions.

show abstract

“…In some cases, water uses are dealt with by looking at population changes, without quantifying the corresponding water demand (i.e., the volumes associated; e.g., Griffin et al, 2013). In other cases, water demand is not simulated but data from historical series or estimates by local water managers are used (e.g., Pulido-Velazquez et al, 2011;López-Moreno et al, 2014). This limits the possibility of analyzing the drivers of the variations of demand in space and over time, even when sufficient data on withdrawals are available to account for this variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies of the water balance (Varela-Ortega et al, 2011;Collet et al, 2013;Milano et al, 2013a) included indicators that represent the ability of supply to meet demand (e.g., water demand satisfaction rates or supply reliability) and the level of anthropogenic pressures on water resources (e.g., withdrawal to resource ratios). These indicators usually account for the average water balance (Pulido-Velazquez et al, 2011). In some cases, statistical components are included in the analysis, such as the return period of undesirable events (Asefa et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

Fabre

Ruelland

Dezetter

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In this study we present an integrative modeling framework aimed at assessing the balance between water demand and availability and its spatial and temporal variability over long time periods. The model was developed and tested over the period 1971-2009 in the Hérault (2500 km 2 , France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2 , Spain) catchments. Natural streamflow was simulated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of river flow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoir management model applied to the largest dam in the Hérault Basin and to 11 major dams in the Ebro Basin. Urban water demand was estimated from population and monthly unit water demand data. Water demand for irrigation was computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing. Water shortage was assessed at a 10-day time step by comparing water demand and availability through indicators calculated at strategic resource and demand nodes. The outcome of this study is twofold. First, we were able to correctly simulate variations in influenced streamflow, reservoir levels and water shortage between 1971 and 2009 in both basins, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water management strategies over time. Second, we provided information not available through simple data analysis on the influence of withdrawals and consumptive use on streamflow and on the drivers of imbalance between demand and availability. Observed past variations in discharge were explained by separating anthropogenic and climatic pressures in our simulations: 3 % (20 %) of the decrease in the Hérault (Ebro) discharge were linked to anthropogenic changes. Although key areas of the Hérault Basin were shown to be highly sensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water demand and availability in the Ebro Basin appears to be more critical, owing to high agricultural pressure on water resources. The modeling framework developed and tested in this study will be used to assess water balance under climatic and socioeconomic prospective scenarios and to investigate the effectiveness of adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water demand and availability.

show abstract

A methodology to diagnose the effect of climate change and to identify adaptive strategies to reduce its impacts in conjunctive-use systems at basin scale

Cited by 56 publications

References 25 publications

The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Managed Aquifer Recharge System for Irrigation under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About