A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the "with measures" scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance.Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Implementing city-level carbon accounting: A comparison between Madrid and London

“…As Lumbreras et al (2009Lumbreras et al ( , 2015 point out, uncertainties are inevitable when the GHG emissions inventories are estimated. Therefore, an assessment of uncertainties related to GHG emissions inventories is important to provide useful information for policymakers about the potential limitations of the findings.…”

Actualización Del Inventario Nacional De Emisiones De 2013 Para La Modelación De La Calidad Del Aire en El Centro De México

“…Sin embargo, en el proceso de elaboración de los IE se presenta un sinnúmero de incertidumbres (Yumimoto y Uno 2006, Lumbreras et al 2015 que no están cuantificadas o no son reportadas por sus autores y producen errores en las simulaciones numéricas (IPCC 2000, Hao et al 2002, Streets et al 2003, Chang y Hanna 2004, Borrego et al 2008, Schultz 2008, Raadgever et al 2011, Miller et al 2012. Por ello se requiere el desarrollo continuo de metodologías para actualizar y ajustar sus datos (Lumbreras et al 2009, Li et al 2010.…”