A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

Schaldach, Rüdiger; Meurer, Katharina; Jungkunst, Hermann F.; Nendel, Claas; Lakes, Tobia; Gollnow, Florian; Göpel, Jan; Boy, Jens; Guggenberger, Georg; Strey, Robert; Strey, Simone; Berger, T.; Gerold, Gerhard; Schönenberg, Regine; Böhner, Jürgen; Schindewolf, Marcus; Latynskiy, Evgeny; Hampf, Anna; Parker, Phillip S.; Sentelhas, Paulo César

doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1244-z

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Similarly, the Cerrado has also become subject to significant land use change (Jepson 2005;Beuchle et al 2015;de Oliveira et al 2017). The conversion of both ecosystems into cattle pastures and agricultural land already considerably affected biodiversity (Lees and Peres 2006), but also carbon (C) stocks and emissions, and the consequences for environment and society, are currently under debate, also in the context of climate change (Fearnside 2005;Cox et al 2000;Malhi et al 2008;Schaldach et al 2018). The Brazilian Amazon is one of the world's largest biomass carbon pools, containing approximately 149 Mg C ha −1 (Nogueira et al 2015).…”

Section: Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…actor constellation) along the BR-163, qualitative data was gathered which was used for scenario development, along with regional and local expert knowledge for the southern Amazon region (Schönenberg et al 2017). These narratives were later translated into quantitative parameters to be used for LUC and impact modelling Schaldach et al 2018) with the development of four regional adapted LUC scenarios. LUC simulations (until 2030) were carried out using LandSHIFT (Schaldach and Koch 2009) on data obtained from The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), IBGE statistics and agricultural yield predictions obtained from the MONICA agro-ecosystem model (Nendel et al 2011).…”

Section: Inter-and Transdisciplinary Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Carbon-optimised land management strategies for southern Amazonia

et al. 2017

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Section: Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Inter-and Transdisciplinary Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon-optimised land management strategies for southern Amazonia

et al. 2017

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“…Generally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al 1998) is used for estimating SC derived from sheet erosion driven by different land cover and management scenarios (Neitsch et al 2011), permitting to set the baseline of SC in pristine conditions, as well as to predict future impacts of LUCC on water quality (Neitsch et al 2011;Arnold et al 2012). SWAT has been applied in different Brazilian regions (Schaldach et al 2017;Lamparter et al 2018). However, few studies have modeled the impacts of LUCC on SC of Amazonian rivers (Bressiani et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the effects of land cover change on sediment concentrations in a gold-mined Amazonian basin

et al. 2019

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Land use/land cover change (LUCC) combined with gold mining activity (GMA) have reportedly affected the water quality of Amazonian rivers by intensifying surface soil erosion and increasing rivers' sediment concentration (SC). However, the role of LUCC on river siltation in comparison to that caused by GMA has not been assessed, and predictions of SC in the rivers accounting for future LUCC are scarce. This study applied a sediment modeling approach on Crepori Basin, located at eastern Amazon Basin, to simulate the impacts of past and future LUCC on SC in the river, comparing their impacts to those caused by GMA. Between 1973 and 2012, the expansion of deforested areas in the region had increased sheet erosion-driven SC in the river, especially during the highwater season, by up to 73.3%. LUCC projections for 2050 suggest future increases in sheet erosion-driven SC during the high-water season by more than three times of that caused by the land cover scenario of 1998-2012. Comparison between SC driven by sheet erosion to that caused by GMA has also shown that during the high-water and the low-water seasons, respectively, only about 14% and 6% of the total SC in the Crepori River resulted from laminar soil erosion, with the remaining proportion resulting from GMA.

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“…Studies have shown the importance of assessing land cover and land use change (LCLUC) under multiple scenarios, which can also guide attitudes, choices, and actions that increase the probability of realizing a desirable future 22 . Schaldach et al 23 , 24 and Hampf et al 25 also applied an LCLUC model to identify the conversion of vegetation cover to agricultural lands and the consequently increases/decreases in greenhouse gas emissions, providing valuable information to support the development of land use strategies in a portion of the Cerrado biome, in the called Southern Amazon. Some studies evaluate future land use scenarios englobing the Cerrado 26 ; however, to the best of our knowledge, there are no studies on scenarios of LCLUC that simultaneously aim to (1) understand which variables influence vegetation loss in the entire Cerrado and whether they change between periods, evaluating (2) which areas are most affected and how much will be lost at a property scale (the management unit of the LR policy).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Brazilian Cerrado land use change highlights the need to account for private property sizes for biodiversity conservation

Colman,

Guerra,

Almagro

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Simulating future land use changes can be an important tool to support decision-making, especially in areas that are experiencing rapid anthropogenic pressure, such as the Cerrado–Brazilian savanna. Here we used a spatially-explicit model to identify the main drivers of native vegetation loss in the Cerrado and then extrapolate this loss for 2050 and 2070. We also analyzed the role of property size in complex Brazilian environmental laws in determining different outcomes of these projections. Our results show that distance to rivers, roads, and cities, agricultural potential, permanent and annual crop agriculture, and cattle led to observed/historical loss of vegetation, while protected areas prevented such loss. Assuming full adoption of the current Forest Code, the Cerrado may lose 26.5 million ha (± 11.8 95% C.I.) of native vegetation by 2050 and 30.6 million ha (± 12.8 95% C.I.) by 2070, and this loss shall occur mainly within large properties. In terms of reconciling conservation and agricultural production, we recommend that public policies focus primarily on large farms, such as protecting 30% of the area of properties larger than 2500 ha, which would avoid a loss of more than 4.1 million hectares of native vegetation, corresponding to 13% of the predicted loss by 2070.

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A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

Cited by 10 publications

References 60 publications

Carbon-optimised land management strategies for southern Amazonia

Carbon-optimised land management strategies for southern Amazonia

Modeling the effects of land cover change on sediment concentrations in a gold-mined Amazonian basin

Modeling the Brazilian Cerrado land use change highlights the need to account for private property sizes for biodiversity conservation

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