A Model-Based System Metaheuristic Engineering MBSME Approach in the Conceptual Selection of Offshore Production Units

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present and discuss the philosophy behind the integration of "Model-Based Systems Engineering" (MBSE) with metaheuristic algorithms, referred to as "Model-Based Systems Metaheuristic Engineering" (MBSME), which has demonstrated high potential of techno-economic optimization of large capital projects in oil and gas industry, notably in the automatic and integrated conceptual design and selection of offshore systems architectures. Virtual modeling has always been an important part of systems engineering to support functional, performance and other engineering analysis. The so-called MBSME allows the simulation of several specific System-of-Systems physically addressed in offshore field development, bringing all the benefits of the traditional MBSE approach, and set a stochastic characteristic in the analysis, allowing the project team to focus on a Model-Centric approach, as well as to quickly understand the influence of several combined project strategies and application of different technologies, communicated through a Tradespace exploration map. Due to the characteristics associated with and the countless number of variables of the multidimensional problem addressed in an offshore field development, the integration of "Meta-Heuristic" algorithms with "Model-Based Systems Engineering" has demonstrated a remarkable efficiency and powerful applicability in the search for optimized design solutions in oil and gas industry, especially considering the processes of generation of conceptual alternatives of offshore production systems. This method leads to a reduction of more than 2/3 of the average time currently observed, with an increase in the number of conceptual alternatives evaluated in the order of tens to an order of thousands of options, in an automatic and integrated approach. Although the digital MBSME already developed addresses the combination of all technical disciplines associated with a complete offshore field development, the current work emphasizes the latest R&D achievements, addressing the automatic design and specification of Topside Facilities architecture, combined with the automatic selection of fitting for purpose Production Unit, based on internal requirements, such as the required capacity to support total weight and footprint imposed by the topside facilities’ modules, as well as external requirements, like water depth, surface metocean, type of well completion and oil storage requirements. An example of the MBSME application is presented, demonstrating a three-dimensional Tradespace exploration, relating Net Present Value (NPV), Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Breakeven Oil Price, through the application of a computational package in a hypothetical project, reflecting the design conditions of an offshore development in the Brazilian Pre-Salt region. The paper communicates an efficient method to increase the scope and accuracy of conceptual analyses, leading to the identification of the most favorable techno-economic conditions to the particularities of each project, supporting significant increases of return on investments.