A model for dengue disease with variable human population

Esteva, Luis; Vargas, Cristóbal

doi:10.1007/s002850050147

Cited by 220 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…A number of epidemiological models have considered arboviral transmissions (particularly dengue and chikungunya) focusing on different aspects of disease transmission [67,70,[72][73][74][75][76] and characteristics such as seasonality, temperature dependence, cross-immunity with multiple strains, and control measures [77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85]. Several recently published modeling studies for Zika transmission have focused on fitting models to current transmission in the South Pacific and South and Central America [68,[86][87][88] with Ae.…”

Section: Ethics Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

Manore

Ostfeld

Agusto

et al. 2016

Preprint

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The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.

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Section: Ethics Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

Manore

Ostfeld

Agusto

et al. 2016

Preprint

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show abstract

“…4) Flow from the susceptible to the infected class of both populations (human and mosquito), for each strain, depend on the biting rate of the mosquitoes, the transmission probabilities, as well as the number of infectives and susceptibles of each population [5], [6]. It assumed that the transmission probability from an infected human to a susceptible mosquito must equal the transmission probability from an infected mosquito to a susceptible human ( ) .…”

Section: N T S T E T E T I T I Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue Fever with Two Strains in Thailand

Janreung¹,

Chinviriyasit²

2014

IJAPM

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“…Dengue has become a global problem since Second World War. The incubation period (time between exposure and onset of symptoms) ranges from 3 -14 days, but most often it is 4 -7 days [3] [4] [11]. Therefore, travelers returning from endemic area are unlikely to have dengue if fever or other symptoms start more than 14 days after arriving home [4] [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several mathematical models have been developed in the literature to gain-insights into the transmission dynamics of dengue in a community [1] [10] [11] [17]- [26]. In our previous paper, we have extended some of the earlier models by considering the migrated individuals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Control Strategies on the Transmission Dynamics of a Vector-Borne Disease

Hossain¹,

Nayeem²,

Podder³

2015

OJMSi

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In this paper, we have rigorously analyzed a model to find the effective control strategies on the transmission dynamics of a vector-borne disease. It is proved that the global dynamics of the disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number. The numerical simulations (using MatLab and Maple) of the model reveal that the precautionary measures at the aquatic and adult stage decrease the number of new cases of dengue virus. Numerical simulation indicates that if we take the precautionary measures seriously then it would be more effective than even giving the treatment to the infected individuals.

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A model for dengue disease with variable human population

Cited by 220 publications

References 16 publications

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

Dengue Fever with Two Strains in Thailand

Effective Control Strategies on the Transmission Dynamics of a Vector-Borne Disease

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