Barrier breaching and subsequent inlet formation represent critical processes that ensure the temporary or permanent connection and transference of water, nutrients, or living organisms between a lagoon and the open sea. Here, we investigate the conditions inducing natural barrier breaching through a 34 months monitoring program of water-level oscillations within a shallow lagoon and the adjacent nearshore, at the Northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, Louro lagoon. Seven natural openings were identified during the three monitored wet seasons (Wet1, Wet2 and Wet3), four in the Wet1, two in the Wet2 and 1 in the Wet3. Identified openings were grouped in three types depending on the observed relation between the lagoon water-level (Lwl), the berm height (Bh) and the water-level at the beach (Bwl): (i) openings by lagoon outflow, which include those characterized by Lwl higher than the Bh and lower Bwl; (ii) openings by wave overwash, including those induced by Bwl higher than the Bh, and (iii) mixed openings, which result from a combination of the two previous conditions. We have found that the Lwl is modulated by the rainfall regime (Rf) and can be explained by the accumulated precipitation while Bh and Bwl depend on the wave climate and tidal level and can be estimated applying runup equations. The inlet lifespan was found to be regulated by the wave climate and rainfall regime; in particular barrier sealing was associated with a sudden increase in wave period and reduction in precipitation. This work proves that the natural openings could be predicted successfully with support to medium term waterlevel monitoring programs, which in turn may significantly contribute to strategic decision making for management and conservation purposes.