A Model of Anticipation in Driving

Abstract

The ability to anticipate future events in the traffic environment is an important competence in driving. This paper extends our prior work: 1) to show potential benefits resulting from anticipatory competence in driving, and 2) to collate characteristics of anticipatory competence from a theoretical point of view. The reviewed literature is foundational to our understanding of anticipation as a highlevel cognitive competence, allowing for the prediction of future traffic situations on a tactical level. We conceptualize anticipation as relying on the identification of stereotypical traffic situations based on indicative cues, and stress that the impacts of this competence are dependent on the driver's individual goals. Thus, anticipation enables a number of potential benefits, such as safety and fuel-efficiency, but the realization of these potential benefits depends on the goals of the driver. Further, we argue that the superior anticipatory competence of experienced drivers observed in an earlier simulator study can be explained via their heightened ability both to identify indicative cues, and interpret those cues relative to similar, memorized situations. We then capture anticipatory driving in a model inspired by the classical theory of information processing to describe the various steps necessary to process indicative cues from the environment, anticipate a future traffic situation, and take appropriate action or achieve a state of cognitive readiness.

Detecting driver stress and hazard anticipation using real‐time cardiac measurement: A simulator study

“…Based on the model of anticipation in driving, Stahl et al (2014) suggested that anticipatory responses (cognitive preparation and actions) were strongly guided by past experience of similar situations stored in episodic memory (see Figure 1). Indeed, the authors pointed out that increased anticipation could be explained by a "heightened ability to identify indicative cues, and interpret these cues relative to similar, memorized situations."…”

“…Based on the relationship between anticipation and memorized situations (Stahl et al, 2014), we hypothesized that a predictable and familiar event (PF) would shape a greater cardiac component ECR1, thus reflecting an increased anticipation of the hazard. However, our results indicated no change in heart rate between the predictable and familiar event (PF) and the predictable and unfamiliar event (first exposure).…”

“…Adaptation and simplification of the model of anticipation in driving (Stahl et al, 2014) • We assumed that drivers perceiving events as highly stressful would reveal a lower magnitude of the cardiac component ECR1 than those perceiving them as less stressful, thus reflecting reduced anticipation.…”

Exploring hazard anticipation and stress while driving in light of defensive behavior theory

“…Within this framework, we define hazard anticipation as the process that supports the prediction of future hazards and gives drivers additional time to prepare and execute appropriate driving behavior. Because of conflicting definitions of hazard anticipation 12 – 14 , we decided in the current study to address hazard anticipation as a process that encompasses the stages of hazard detection, hazard awareness, and response selection.…”

“…Numerous research has reported that experienced drivers are better at anticipating hazards than novices 2 , 26 , 27 . According to Stahl and colleagues 14 , anticipation skills in more experienced drivers would be superior due to their ability to detect and interpret cues from similar and memorized situations. These better anticipation skills would benefit experienced drivers by allowing them to maximize the time needed to prepare an appropriate response 2 .…”