2020
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820002162
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A model of COVID-19 transmission to understand the effectiveness of the containment measures: application to data from France

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to address the following question: are the containment measures imposed by most of the world governments effective and sufficient to stop the epidemic of COVID-19 beyond the lock-down period? In this paper, we propose a mathematical model which allows us to investigate and analyse this problem. We show by means of the reproductive number, R 0 that the containment measures appear to have slowed the growth of the outbreak. Nevertheless, these measures remain only effective as … Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…We expect a direct and negative effect of stringent containment measures on Covid-19-related mortality, since after a certain amount of time- stringent measures lead to decreased contagions, hence, lower mortality (H1) . During the first year of the pandemic, we increasingly see evidence showing a negative relation between government interventions through containment policies and the spread of the virus ( Deb et al, 2020 ; Dehning et al, 2020 ; Zongo et al, 2020 ), so it is plausible to infer that this will also affect mortality. In this article, we will focus on testing the interaction between policy and trust in government, on the desired outcome of that policy (in our case: low mortality).…”
Section: Public Policy Guidelines and Trust During The Pandemicmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We expect a direct and negative effect of stringent containment measures on Covid-19-related mortality, since after a certain amount of time- stringent measures lead to decreased contagions, hence, lower mortality (H1) . During the first year of the pandemic, we increasingly see evidence showing a negative relation between government interventions through containment policies and the spread of the virus ( Deb et al, 2020 ; Dehning et al, 2020 ; Zongo et al, 2020 ), so it is plausible to infer that this will also affect mortality. In this article, we will focus on testing the interaction between policy and trust in government, on the desired outcome of that policy (in our case: low mortality).…”
Section: Public Policy Guidelines and Trust During The Pandemicmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Yet, this spread slowed down following the early introduction of international travel restrictions. Furthermore, ongoing transmission and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread of many variants within the continent (Wilkinson et al, 2021 ; Zongo et al, 2020 ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The relatively low number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 is thought to be largely attributed to the fact that forecast regarding the evolution of the pandemic in Africa has been made without regard to some specificities such as socio-demographic aspects (Zongo et al, 2020 ). African countries seem to be more resilient to COVID-19 because of the swift adoption of mitigation measures, the low rate of urbanization, the limited transport network and the youth of the population: in fact, the median age of the population lies between 31 to 42 years old for Europe, America, Oceania and Asia, as compared to 18 years old for Africa (Adams et al, 2021 ; Desjardins, 2019 ; Lulbadda et al, 2021 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Кроме того, в 2020 г. в Российской Федерации зарегистрированы две вакцины для взрослых лиц от 18 до 60 лет, индуцирующие формирование гуморального и клеточного иммунитета в отношении SARS-CoV-2: комбинированная векторная вакцина («Гам-КОВИД-Вак») и вакцина на основе пептидных антигенов («ЭпиВакКорона»). В настоящее время наиболее эффективным способом снижения интенсивности эпидемического процесса COVID-19 является принятие на государственном уровне 14-дневного карантина или обсервации людей с положительными результатами исследований на наличие РНК SARS-CoV-2, социального дистанцирования и других ограничительных мер, которые широко применяются правительствами различных стран [8][9][10][11][12][13].…”
Section: обоснованиеunclassified