A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin

Abstract

The Xingu River Basin (XRB) in the Brazilian Amazon region has a great relevance to the development of northern Brazil because of the Belo Monte hydropower plant and its crescent agribusiness expansion. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology (LASH) model to represent the main hydrological processes in the XRB and simulate the hydrological impacts in the face of land-use change scenarios. Following the trend of the most relevant agribusiness evolution in the XRB, four agribusiness scenarios (S) were structured considering the increase in grasslands (S1: 50% over the native forest; S2: 100% over the native forest) and soybean plantations (S3: 50% over the native forest; S4: 100% over native forest). Average hydrographs were simulated, and the frequency duration curves (FDC) and average annual values of the main hydrological components for each scenario were compared. The results showed that, in general, changes in land use based on deforestation in the XRB would lead to an increase in flood streamflow and a reduction in baseflow. The increases in direct surface runoff varied from 4.4% for S1 to 29.8% for S4 scenarios. The reduction in baseflow varied from −1.6% for S1 to −4.9% for S2. These changes were reduced when the entire XRB was analyzed, but notable for the sub-basins in its headwater region, where the scenarios were more effective.

Effects of changes in use and soil cover on real evapotranspiration from the creation of a remote sensing product in the Xingu basin

“…Due to its natural constitution, the precipitation levels in the basin range from 1,500 to 2,500 mm/year, directly influencing ET values. Such data are influenced by the climate variability of the region, positioned between the Equatorial climate to the north, and the Tropical, to the south (Lucas et al, 2009;Isa, 2016;Rizzo et al, 2020;Cunha et al, 2023).…”

Sustainable Land Governance for Water–Energy–Food Systems: A Framework for Rural and Peri-Urban Revitalisation

“…This removal of trees and vegetation has also disturbed the water cycle in the region, altering rainfall patterns, reducing water availability, and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. The use of pesticides and fertilisers in agriculture has contaminated nearby water bodies, posing risks to aquatic life (e.g., frugivorous fish in charge of dispersing seeds along the riverbanks) and human health, while conflicts over land rights and dispossession of Indigenous communities have also emerged [34,36]. The LW relationship in the Amazon rainforest is being studied in the framework of our research project ForestFisher (https://www.amazon-fish.com/forestfisher accessed on 28 July 2023), in partnership with other international institutions.…”

WRF-Hydro for Streamflow Simulation in the MATOPIBA Region within the Tocantins/Araguaia River Basin—Brazil: Implications for Water Resource Management

“…Numerous studies focus on addressing issues in the areas of resource conservation and agricultural productivity, showing interest in the complementary modeling of hydrological and cropping systems [8]. The potential of the LASH (Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology) model was assessed by [9] to simulate hydrological impacts in response to land-use change scenarios, following the most significant trends in agribusiness in an Amazon Basin in Brazil. In contrast, [10] evaluated the effects of agricultural expansion on water availability in a region of western Bahia, located in Brazil and part of the MATOPIBA region, through hydrological modeling by assessing river flows using the coupled INLAND (Integrated Model of Land Surface Processes) and THMB (Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry).…”