A modeling of a Diphtheria epidemic in the refugees camps

Abstract

Background. Diphtheria has a big mortality rate. Vaccination practically eradicated it in industrialized countries. A decrease in vaccine coverage and public health deterioration cause a reemergence in the Soviet Union in 1990. These circumstances seem to be being reproduced in refugee camps with a potential risk of new outbreak.Methods. We constructed a mathematical model that describes the evolution of the Soviet Union epidemic outbreak. We use it to evaluate how the epidemic would be modied by changing the rate of vaccination, and improving public health conditions.Results. We observe that a small decrease of 15% in vaccine coverage, translates an ascent of 47% in infected people. A coverage increase of 15% and 25% decreases a 44% and 66% respectively of infected people. Just improving health care measures a 5%, infected people decreases a 11.31%. Combining high coverage with public health measures produces a bigger reduction in the amount of infected people compare to amelioration of coverage rate or health measures alone.Conclusions. Our model estimates the evolution of a diphtheria epidemic outbreak. Small increases in vaccination rates and in public health measures can translate into large dierences in the evolution of a possible epidemic. These estimates can be helpful in socioeconomic instability, to prevent and control a disease spread.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017

“…To date, an explicit epidemiological estimate of R 0 for diphtheria has been reported only by Anderson & May (1982) : using a static modeling approach to age-dependent incidence data with an assumption of the endemic equilibrium, R 0 was estimated as 6.6 in Pennsylvania, 1910s and 6.4 in Virginia and New York from 1934 to 1947. Subsequently, a few additional modeling studies of diphtheria took place ( Kolibo & Romaniuk, 2001 ; Sornbundit, Triampo & Modchang, 2017 ; Torrea, Ortega & Torera, 2017 ), but none of these offered an empirical estimate of R 0 .…”

Global Stability Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Diphtheria Model: A Case Study of an Epidemic in Rohingya Refugee Camp in Bangladesh

“…Zakikhany and Efstratiou [ 27 ] analyzed the current problems and new challenges of diphtheria in Europe. Torrea et al [ 28 ] have studied the diphtheria outbreak with the SIRM model. Ilahi and Widiana [ 29 ] have developed an SEIR model for the diphtheria outbreak and analyze vaccination's effectiveness against the outbreak.…”

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