A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

Xie, Bing; Zhang, Hua; Yang, Dongdong; Wang, Zhili

doi:10.1016/j.accre.2016.12.001

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The metric that evaluates the contribution of a specific atmospheric component to climate change can only be obtained via the modeling approach, since it is difficult to derive the global tropospheric adjustment terms without using a comprehensive climate model. Previous studies have reported the dominant contributions of well‐mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) to global warming over the Industrial Era, with the best estimate of ERF reaching 2.83 (2.26–3.40) W m −2 (Myhre, Shindell, et al., 2013 ; Oshima et al., 2020 ; Xie et al., 2016 ). However, aerosols are closely linked to changes in regional radiation budgets and near‐term climate changes due to their short lifetimes, complex distributions, and aerosol‐cloud interactions (Li et al., 2019 ; Y. W. Liu et al., 2018 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

Zhang

Xie

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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With the continuation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid‐19) pandemic, the impacts of this catastrophe on anthropogenic emissions are no longer limited to its early stage. This study quantitatively estimates effective radiative forcings (ERFs) due to anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols for the period 2020–2050 under the three latest Covid‐19 economic‐recovery scenarios using an aerosol‐climate model. The results indicate that reductions in both WMGHG and aerosol emissions under the Covid‐19 green recoveries lead to increases ranging from 0 to 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean anthropogenic ERF over the period 2020–2050 relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 scenario (the baseline case). These positive ERFs are mainly attributed to the rapid and dramatic decreases in atmospheric aerosol content that increase net shortwave radiative flux at the top of atmosphere via weakening the direct aerosol effect and low cloud cover. At the regional scale, reductions in aerosols contribute to positive ERFs throughout the Northern Hemisphere, while the decreased WMGHGs dominate negative ERFs over the areas away from aerosol pollution, such as the Southern Hemisphere oceans. This drives a strong interhemispheric contrast of ERFs. In contrast, the increased anthropogenic emissions under the fossil‐fueled recovery scenario lead to an increase of 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean ERF in 2050 compared with the baseline case, primarily due to the contribution of WMGHG ERFs. The regional ERF changes are highly dependent on local cloud radiative effects.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

Zhang

Xie

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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“…The same phenomenon was observed over the Indian Ocean. Therefore, a reduction in SLCP concentrations might result in the southward movement of the ITCZ, as was the case for the aerosol effect (Wang, Zhang, Li, et al, ; Zhao et al, ; Zhou et al, ) and CH 4 effect (Xie, Zhang, Yang, & Wang, ). By 2050, as SLCP concentrations decreased under RCPs 4.5 and 2.6, global mean precipitation decreased by 0.02 and 0.03 mm d −1 , respectively.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…As important climate‐forcing factors, SLCPs contribute to 40–45% of total global warming (UNEP & WMO, ). Xie, Zhang, Wang, et al (), Xie, Zhang, Yang, & Wang () used an online aerosol‐climate model to simulate the climate response to changes in tropospheric O 3 and CH 4 concentrations. According to their estimate, since the industrial revolution, global mean surface air temperature (SAT) had increased by 0.36 and 0.31°C due to increases in tropospheric O 3 and CH 4 concentrations, respectively, and surface warming was particularly obvious in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response to Short‐Lived Climate Pollutants Under Different Scenarios

2018

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We used an online aerosol‐climate model (BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero) to simulate effective radiative forcing and climate response to changes in the concentrations of short‐lived climatic pollutants (SLCPs), including methane, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon, for the period 2010–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs) 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6. Under these three scenarios, the global annual mean effective radiative forcing were 0.1, −0.3, and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the change in SLCPs caused significant increases in surface air temperature (SAT) in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and significant decreases in precipitation in the Indian Peninsula and equatorial Pacific. Global mean SAT and precipitation increased by 0.13 K and 0.02 mm d−1, respectively. The reduction in SLCPs from 2010 to 2050 under RCPs 4.5 and 2.6 led to significant decreases in SAT at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Precipitation increased slightly in most continental regions, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone moved southward under both of these mitigation scenarios. Global mean SAT decreased by 0.20 and 0.44 K, and global averaged precipitation decreased by 0.02 and 0.03 mm d−1 under RCPs 4.5 and 2.6, respectively.

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“…Meanwhile, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2015) assessed the effects of regional SLCPs emissions on the Arctic, indicating that non-CH 4 SLCPs emissions from East and South Asia had the greatest warming effect in the Arctic. Xie et al (2016a), Xie et al (2016b) found both CH 4 and tropospheric O 3 lead to more obvious warming in Northern Hemisphere. BC emissions in Europe and East Asia led to Arctic temperature response 390% and 240% larger than the global temperature response, respectively (Borgar et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…As important climate-forcing factors, SLCPs contribute to 40%-45% of total global warming (UNEP&WMO, 2011). Xie et al (2016a), Xie et al (2016b) found the increased CH 4 and tropospheric O 3 concentrations since preindustrial times have resulted in a global annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increase of 0.31 and 0.36 °C, respectively. Removing all anthropogenic BC emissions would cause a global cooling of 0.05 °C according to Stohl et al (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simulation study on the climatic responses to short-lived climate pollutants changes from the pre-industrial era to the present

Xie

Zhang

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including methane, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon in this work, is a set of compounds with shorter lifetimes than carbon dioxide (CO2) and can cause warming effect on climate. Here, the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is estimated by using an online aerosol–climate model (BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero); then the climate responses to SLCPs concentration changes from the pre-industrial era to the present (1850–2010) are estimated. The global annual mean ERF of SLCPs was estimated to be 0.99 [0.79–1.20] W m−2, and led to warming effects over most parts of the globe, with the warming center (about 1.0 K increase) being located in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the ocean around Antarctica. The changes in annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) caused by SLCPs changes were more prominent in the NH [0.78 (0.62–0.94) K] than in the Southern Hemisphere [0.62 (0.45–0.74) K], and the global annual mean value is 0.70 K. By looking at other variable responses, we found that precipitation had been increased by about 0.10 mm d−1 in mid- and high-latitudes and decreased by about 0.20 mm d−1 in subtropical regions, with the global annual mean value of 0.02 mm d−1. Changes in SLCPs also influenced atmospheric circulation change, a northward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone was induced due to the interhemispheric asymmetry in SAT. However, it is found in this work that SLCPs changes had little effect on global average cloud cover, whereas the local cloud cover changes could not be ignored, low cloud cover increase by about 2.5% over high latitudes in the NH and the ribbon area near 60°S, and high cloud cover increased by more than 2.0% over northern Africa and the Indian Ocean. Finally, we compared the ERFs and global and regional warming effects of SLCPs with those induced by CO2 changes. From 1850 to the present, the ERF of SLCPs was equivalent to 66%, 83%, and 50% of that of CO2 in global, NH, and SH mean, respectively. The increases in SAT caused by SLCPs were 43% and 55% of those by CO2 over the globe and China, respectively.

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A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response to Short‐Lived Climate Pollutants Under Different Scenarios

A simulation study on the climatic responses to short-lived climate pollutants changes from the pre-industrial era to the present

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