A modelling framework for assessing the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean

Roson, Roberto

doi:10.18356/a5498199-en

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…This focus is important, as it provides an opportunity for actors at other scales (i.e., subnational and supranational) to identify gaps in government action and to form the basis for cooperative action. This study differs from previous studies such as Day et al (2016), Roson (2014), and CARIBSAVE Partnership (2012), which focus on assessing climate variability, modelling climate impacts, and developing risk profiles, respectively. This paper has two main aims.…”

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confidence: 63%

Adapting to climate change at the national level in Caribbean small island developing state

Robinson¹

2018

ISJ

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Small island developing states (SIDS) are distinct from other developing countries: they are particularly and comparatively more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Efforts to understand national-level vulnerability in these countries are limited. This paper helps to fill this gap and has two main aims. First, it identifies trends in national-level climate change adaptation among SIDS in the Caribbean region. Second, it identifies the limits to adaptation at the national level in these countries. In applying a resilience lens, and using summative content analysis techniques and semi-structured interviews with 26 senior policy-makers, this paper finds that Caribbean SIDS are primarily adapting to changes in hurricane, rainfall, and drought patterns. It also finds that most adaptations are being undertaken in the coastal zone and the water and agriculture sectors, and that there are many factors limiting national-level adaptation. The most commonly reported limit is financing, though not all policy-makers agree that financing is a limit. These findings are important for national SIDS governments and international donors and agencies that will be better able to identify and fill gaps in their adaptation actions and financing. This paper's findings also highlight the importance of depoliticising climate change and prioritising good governance, improving SIDS' access to international adaptation financing, and making the road to a climate-resilient future by walking.

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confidence: 63%

Adapting to climate change at the national level in Caribbean small island developing state

Robinson¹

2018

ISJ

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“…The applications of the GTAP‐E model on the impacts of climate change are abundant; for example, see Zeshan and Ko (2017), Bosello et al. (2006), Roson (2003), Ludena and Mejia (2010) and Nijkamp et al. (2005).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kremers et al (2002) have discussed the suitability of the GTAP-E model for climate change policy analysis in detail. The applications of the GTAP-E model on the impacts of climate change are abundant; for example, see Zeshan and Ko (2017), Bosello et al (2006), Roson (2003), Ludena and Mejia (2010) and Nijkamp et al (2005).…”

Section: Gtap-e Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic consequences of climate change impacts on South Asian agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Abeysekara,

Siriwardana,

Meng

2023

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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South Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions of the globe in terms of climate change, with agriculture the most affected economic sector of the region. This study employs an environmental Global Trade Analysis Project model to simulate the impact of an average global 2°C temperature increase by 2050, with a focus on South Asian countries. The economic costs of climate change in relation to crop productivity losses due to increasing temperature, land productivity losses caused by rising sea levels and heat stress‐induced agricultural labour productivity losses are assessed based on model simulations. The results show that the unfavourable climate change impacts on agricultural productivity (crop, land and labour) will reduce food production and create upward pressure on food prices. This will lead to a reduction in food consumption at the household level, threatening future food security in the region. The results further predict a contraction in all South Asian economies by 2050, due to adverse climate change impacts on the agricultural sector. In addition, out of the three climate change damage factors considered, labour productivity causes the greatest economic losses, while land productivity losses caused by rising sea levels impact the least. The study also found that low‐income countries would suffer most severely due to the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, while high‐income countries would be impacted the least.

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“…SIDS have limited resources and sparse and incomplete data, both historical and current, which are sporadic and often missing (UN OHRLLS, 2011). Modelling of SIDS economies is limited (but see Ronson, 2014;UNECLAC, 2014) and the constraints and opportunities posed by small size and openness are not well captured in global economic models. Regional interlinkages are often strong (e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global to small island; a cross-scale foresight scenario exercise

Drakes

Cashman

Kemp-Benedict

et al. 2020

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Purpose The use of socio-economic scenarios in small island developing states (SIDS) when assessing, and planning for, the impacts of global changes on national socioeconomic and environmental systems is still in its infancy. The research conducts a cross-scale foresight scenario exercise to produce regional scenarios and national storylines for Caribbean islands that are of “partial” consistency to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shows how future socioeconomic and climatic changes can be applied to inform natural resource management decisions. Design/methodology/approach To develop the scenarios, the study uses a three-staged linking process using mixed methods to “triangulate” each technique to compensate for weaknesses of one method by introducing a complementary method at each stage. A participatory-expert stepwise approach with feedback loops is used and complemented with a climate sensitive tourism water demand model. Findings Four regional exploratory socio-economic scenarios were constructed that are partially consistent with global scenarios. In addition, national storylines for four island states were developed based on the regional scenarios. Using RCP 4.5 hotel water demand in Barbados is estimated under three of the regional scenarios based on compatibility. The results indicate there is a 17% difference between the highest and lowest estimated water demand, indicating the effect of varying socio-economic conditions on water demand. Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature by presenting regional socio-economic scenarios, specifically for SIDS, that are partially consistent with both global climatic RCPs and SSPs using a cross-scale approach. The scenarios are then used to demonstrate how future socio-economic pathways impact on freshwater demand.

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A modelling framework for assessing the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean

Cited by 3 publications

References 18 publications

Adapting to climate change at the national level in Caribbean small island developing state

Adapting to climate change at the national level in Caribbean small island developing state

Economic consequences of climate change impacts on South Asian agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Global to small island; a cross-scale foresight scenario exercise

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