A Modelling Framework for Optimisation of Commodity Production by Minimising the Impact of Climate Change

Abstract

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and the frequency of extreme weather events. A modelling framework was developed and applied to identify issues, problems and opportunities arising in regional agricultural systems as a consequence of climate change. This integrated framework blends together land suitability analysis, uncertainty analysis and an optimisation approach to establish optimal agricultural land-use patterns on a regional scale for current and possible future climate scenarios. The framework can also be used to identify (i) regions under threat of productivity decline, and (ii) alternative crops and their locations that can cope better with changing climate. The methods and contents of the framework are presented by means of a case study developed in the South West Region of Victoria, Australia. The results can be used to assess land suitability in support of optimised crop allocations across a local region, and to underpin the development of a regional adaptation policy framework designed to reduce the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to the impacts of climate change.

Experiments in Optimal Spatial Segmentation of Local Regions Using Categorical and Quantitative Data

“…The input consisted of maps of the region representing various criteria (including biophysical data, soil attributes, landscape data, climate data and expert opinion). Each map, representing a single criterion, was reclassified according to the AHP rating and multiplied by the AHP weight (Pelizaro et al 2010). The criterion maps were overlaid, and finally summed up according to the hierarchy level to a final composite index map.…”

“…Productivity of a particular area can be estimated by multiplying the maximum yield defined at the apex of the AHP hierarchy by the suitability index, e.g. if an area shows a suitability index equal to 8 for winter wheat, a yield of (0.8 10 =) 8 ton/ha/year is expected to be achieved in that area (for more details, see Pelizaro et al 2010). The process was repeated for each of the eight commodities in the study, producing eight land suitability maps.…”

“…For example, one would not attempt to grow a water intensive crop such as rice in a desert region. Land suitability is associated with a specific combination of soil, climate and landscape characteristics and is assigned numerical values by a GISbased modelling process (Hossain et al 2006;Pelizaro et al 2010). Land suitability alone may not be a sufficient metric when a variety of crops are available for a defined region.…”

Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?

“…Regional land or climate suitability approaches are usually applied to quantify biophysical land use potential under current and future climatic conditions at a regional scale [39,40]. For example, Pelizaro et al [40] apply a multi-criteria evaluation approach based on soil, landscape and climate criteria to assess agricultural land suitability.…”

“…For example, Pelizaro et al [40] apply a multi-criteria evaluation approach based on soil, landscape and climate criteria to assess agricultural land suitability. Brown et al [39] apply a rule-based evaluation of agricultural potential based on accumulated temperature and maximum soil moisture deficit.…”