A modular Decision Support System for optimum investment selection in presence of uncertainty: Combination of fuzzy mathematical programming and fuzzy rule based system

The definition of more realistic scenarios of instances for the Project Portfolio Optimization (PPO) of new product developments usually should involve precedence relations that generate effects related to time-interdependence among different projects.The study of time -interdependences, or time effects, on the selection of projects captures our attention because they affect the problem objective functions. Three different moments have been identified as usually present in any project: 1) the estimated completion time; 2) the moment in which the competence become significant; and, 3) the moment in which the developed product becomes old. A PPO under such temporal constraints (denoted PPOTC) could face risk because the lack of reliable data derived from long lead times of projects, or by a complex market and technology dynamics; such imperfect knowledge could cause variability in the benefits and requirements of a PPOTC. In this sense, this research proposes the design of a methodology based on intervals for PPOTC under uncertainty, and the study of their influence in choosing optimal project portfolios of new product developments. The advantage of this approach is a unified and simple way to model the different sources of imprecision, uncertainty and arbitrariness. Also, the model is parametrized such that the attitude of the DM facing the imperfect knowledge can be adjusted by using two meaningful parameters.

show abstract

“…(e.g. Hasuike et al, 2009;Damghani et al, 2011), to the interval analysis (cf. Fliedner & Liesio, 2016;Liesio et al, 2007).…”

Section: (Ii)mentioning

confidence: 99%

<strong>Project Portfolio Optimization under Temporal Constraints with uncertainty</strong>

Rangel-Valdez¹,

Balderas-Jaramillo²,

Fernández

et al. 2019

Proceedings of MOL2NET 2018, International Conference on Multidisciplinary Sciences, 4th Edition

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Mohagheghi et al (2015) optimized the PPSS and considered net cash flows as IVF-numbers. Damghani et al (2011) proposed a two-stage decision-making model. In their modeling, fuzzy numbers were hired to represent the values corresponding with the projects and resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Type-2 Fuzzy Optimization Model for Project Portfolio Selection and Scheduling Incorporating Project Interdependency and Splitting

Zolfaghari

Mousavi

Antuchevičienė

2021

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper presents a new optimization model and a new interval type-2 fuzzy solution approach for project portfolio selection and scheduling (PPSS) problem, in which split of projects and re-execution are allowable. Afterward, the approach is realized as a multi-objective optimization that maximizes total benefits of projects concerning economic concepts by considering the interest rate and time value of money and minimizes the tardiness value and total number of interruptions of chosen projects. Besides, budget and resources limitation, newfound relations are proposed to consider dependency relationships via a synergy among projects to solve PPSS problem hiring interval type-2 fuzzy sets. For validation of the model, numerical instances are provided and solved by a new extended procedure based on fuzzy optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints regarding several situations. In the end, their results are studied. The results show that it is more beneficial when projects are allowed to be split.

show abstract

“…There is a vast literature modelling imperfect knowledge in the field of Research & Development project portfolio selection (e.g., [20,[27][28][29]), using statistical information or fuzzy sets. Interval analysis is another approach that has been recently applied to model imperfect knowledge in project portfolio selection and stock portfolio optimization (c.f.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Interval‐Based Evolutionary Approach to Portfolio Optimization of New Product Development Projects

Fernández

Gómez-Santillán

Rangel-Valdez

et al. 2019

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The growth of large enterprises in the manufacturing market commonly depends on good New Product Development (NPD) projects; these projects represent a strategy to overcome competitors inside a competitive environment. The management of such projects is usually complex and involves risk due to the changing and conflicting environment. The approaches that tackle the problem lack an explicit consideration of the DM’s attitude facing uncertainty and imprecision related to the risk and particularly in the presence of time-interdependencies. This paper proposes a model of the time-related effects, under imperfect knowledge, and their influence in choosing optimal NPD portfolios. The proposed approach is an interval-based method to solve NPD portfolio optimization problems under different forms of imperfect knowledge. This approach has the advantage of a unified and simple way to model the different sources of imprecision, vagueness, uncertainty, and arbitrariness. The attitude of the DM facing the imperfect knowledge is adjusted by using some meaningful parameters. The research focuses particularly in creating a method useful for risk-averse DMs. The proposal was tested through an experimental design that compared the results achieved by the new method against the expected value in portfolios. The results revealed that high levels of conservatism might prevent wasting resources in failed projects.

show abstract

A modular Decision Support System for optimum investment selection in presence of uncertainty: Combination of fuzzy mathematical programming and fuzzy rule based system

Cited by 33 publications

References 15 publications

<strong>Project Portfolio Optimization under Temporal Constraints with uncertainty</strong>

<strong>Project Portfolio Optimization under Temporal Constraints with uncertainty</strong>

A Type-2 Fuzzy Optimization Model for Project Portfolio Selection and Scheduling Incorporating Project Interdependency and Splitting

An Interval‐Based Evolutionary Approach to Portfolio Optimization of New Product Development Projects

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About