A Monte Carlo Simulation Method for Risk Management in Road Pavement Maintenance Projects

Arba, Raluca; Jecan, Sergiu; Rusu, Lucia; Sitar‐Tăut, Dan‐Andrei

doi:10.30638/eemj.2019.154

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Compared with the [15] finding, the research found that the project has a probability of 99.46% to provide benefits. Furthermore, it has been encountered that the importance of the initial budget agrees with the results of [16]. Moreover, it has been discovered that an inverse relationship between maintenance costs and the project's NPV is like the findings of [21].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

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Monte Carlo Simulation in a Peruvian Highway

Jaco¹,

Galarza²,

Venero³

et al. 2021

cea

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Highways and roads are important for nations' development and life quality. This is not different for Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión is expected to provide a solution to the over-employed Carretera Central road. This is a multimillionaire and important infrastructure project. Hence, it is important to evaluate the possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed the Monte Carlo simulation for such a purpose. First, variables have been chosen and segregated into input and output. Variables like the initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical maintenance, savings in the operative cost of vehicles, and time savings employed the triangular distribution. Traffic growth and inflation rate employed the Pert distribution. The project's Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return have been selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has been employed to perform the Monte Carlo analysis. Consequently, this research found a high probability that the highway can become a profitable project due to its Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Moreover, savings in operative costs of vehicles and traffic growth rate had positive impacts on the project's Net Present Value. However, the initial investment had a negative relationship with the output variable. Hence, the new highway should take prevision policies to maintain traffic flux. Thus, avoid closures that can have both human and natural sources. This study is the first in the Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk analysis. Moreover, this study provides researchers, state officials, future highway managers, and users' valuable information to elaborate preventive measures to maintain the highway's social sustainability and increase its benefits.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Internationally, the Monte Carlo analysis has been employed in road building and transport management. For instance, one study applied the Monte Carlo simulation in a set of road maintenance projects that found that costs were crucial to keeping the project sustainable [16].…”

Section: Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%