A Monte Carlo simulation model for assessing the risk of introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris to the Tana river, Norway

Paisley, Larry G.; Karlsen, Emil; Jarp, J.; Mo, Tor Atle

doi:10.3354/dao037145

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…No specific salinity data, however, is available for the Sandeelva estuary, and values for this stage of the migration were derived from data for stations at the outlet of the Drammen watercourse estuary. Sensitivity analysis showed that salinity was the most influential variable for the final risk estimates; this is consistent with results of Paisley et al (1999) concerning the risk of transmission of G. salaris from farmed salmon to the Tana River, Norway. This emphasises the need for sufficient data on this variable to enable quantification of the risk.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Risk of inter-river transmission of Gyrodactylus salaris by migrating Atlantic salmon smolts, estimated by Monte Carlo simulation

Høgåsen¹,

Brun²

2003

Dis. Aquat. Org.

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The possibility of Gyrodactylus salaris infection of wild North Atlantic salmon Salmo salar spreading to new rivers poses a major threat in Norway. This freshwater parasite can survive for some time in brackish water, and it has been suggested that smolts leaving infected rivers could transport vital parasites to new rivers. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to estimate the risk that infected smolts would ascend a new river. Data from an infected watercourse in Norway, where the salmon population is maintained constant by cultivation, were used. The model included information on prevalence of infection, hydrographical conditions, survival of G. salaris in brackish water, fish population characteristics, and smolt behaviour during seaward migration. The annual risk was estimated for 3 neighbouring rivers situated at different distances from the index river. For the nearest river, which shares the same brackish water zone with the index river, the model estimated an annual risk of 31% that at least 1 infected smolt would ascend this river. The results of the simulation were highly sensitive to the water salinity along the migration route. For the other rivers, the annual risk was lower than 0.5%. Risk was positively correlated with the number of fish leaving the index river, indicating control of this number as a possible tool in risk management. KEY WORDS: Gyrodactylus salaris · Atlantic salmon · Inter-river transmission · Monte Carlo simulationResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Risk of inter-river transmission of Gyrodactylus salaris by migrating Atlantic salmon smolts, estimated by Monte Carlo simulation

Høgåsen¹,

Brun²

2003

Dis. Aquat. Org.

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“…Control methods for outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) in the Netherlands have been evaluated by modelling (Jalvingh et al 1999, Klinkenberg et al 2003, and these techniques were used extensively to assess competing strategies for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during and after the 2001 epidemic in the UK (Keeling et al 2001, Woolhouse et al 2001, Green & Medley 2002. Although historically limited to theoretical population studies (Levy & Wood 1992, des Clers 1993, the application of mathematical modelling to aquatic animal health has more recently been used to quantify the impact of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) on chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tschawytscha in North America (Hamel 2002), and a stochastic modelling approach was taken to quantitatively assess the risk of transferring Gyrodactylus salaris between specific locations (Paisley et al 1999, Høgåsen & Brun 2003. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed predictive study of the potential distribution of disease on a national scale by live fish movement.…”

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confidence: 99%

Stochastic simulation of live salmonid movement in England and Wales to predict potential spread of exotic pathogens

Thrush

Peeler²

2006

Dis. Aquat. Org.

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The anthropogenic movement of live fish has been identified as the most important route for the transmission of disease between river catchments. To assist in contingency planning for exotic salmonid disease outbreaks, a stochastic model was developed to assess the potential geographic distribution of an introduced pathogen with time to first detection. The Live Fish Movement Database (a resource funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [Defra] and managed by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science [CEFAS] and the Environment Agency [EA]) was used to establish details of live fish movement in England and Wales. A contact network was created for farm to farm and farm to non-farm (fishery) movements of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, brown trout Salmo trutta and Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, and probability functions were used to model the timing and destination of movements from farm sites, based on these trading activities. Monte Carlo simulations were run to track the progression of potential disease transmission from single index farm inputs through river catchments with time. Two hundred farms exported fish to 1653 destinations in 147 of the total 198 river catchments. The median number of catchments contacted after 3 and 12 mo were 3 and 6, respectively. In 5% of simulations 63 or more catchments were contacted, and in 1% of simulations 75 or more catchments were contacted after 12 mo. These results may be used to underpin the development of contingency plans for exotic disease outbreaks.KEY WORDS: Epidemiology · Monte Carlo simulation · Risk assessment · Contingency planning · Aquaculture · Fish disease · Salmonid Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherDis Aquat Org 72: [115][116][117][118][119][120][121][122][123] 2006 The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS) is the competent authority for the control of notifiable fish diseases in England and Wales. All fish farming businesses are registered with CEFAS, and farmers have a legal obligation to keep records of all movements of live fish and gametes on and off their sites and to make this information available to CEFAS Fish Health Inspectors during mandatory visits. Movements to recreational fisheries or open waters for restocking require consent from the Environment Agency (EA) under Section 30 of the Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries Act (Anonymous 1975). CEFAS maintains the Live Fish Movement Database (LFMD) to manage all data relating to fish farm registration, fish imports and exports, and rearing of non-native fish species. The details of farm to farm and farm to nonfarm fish movements are logged on the LFMD by CEFAS and the EA respectively.Mathematical disease modelling is a rapidly expanding area of human and veterinary epidemiology, and examples of its use include prediction of the global impact of AIDS (May & Anderson 1987), assessment of control strategies for the containment of an influenza pandemic (Ferguson et al. ...

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“…Those relevant to the introduction of aquatic pathogens include work by Paisley (2001) for the monogenetic trematode Gyrodactylus salaris that has negatively impacted populations of Atlantic salmon in Norway. For whirling disease, Bruneau (2001) reported a quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of M. cerebralis into Alberta, Canada, via the importation of live salmonids.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk Assessment Based Approach for the Management of Whirling Disease

Bartholomew

Kerans

Hedrick

et al. 2005

Reviews in Fisheries Science

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A Monte Carlo simulation model for assessing the risk of introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris to the Tana river, Norway

Cited by 22 publications

References 3 publications

Risk of inter-river transmission of Gyrodactylus salaris by migrating Atlantic salmon smolts, estimated by Monte Carlo simulation

Risk of inter-river transmission of Gyrodactylus salaris by migrating Atlantic salmon smolts, estimated by Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic simulation of live salmonid movement in England and Wales to predict potential spread of exotic pathogens

A Risk Assessment Based Approach for the Management of Whirling Disease

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