It is generally assumed that spore behavior is independent of spore concentration, but recently published mathematical models indicate that this is not the case. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed in this study to further examine the independence assumption by evaluating the inherent variance in spore germination data. All simulations were carried out with @Risk software. A total of 500 to 4,000 iterations were needed for each simulation to reach convergence. Lag time and doubling time from a higher inoculum concentration were used to simulate the time to detection (TTD) at a lower inoculum concentration under otherwise identical environmental conditions. The point summaries of the simulated and observed TTDs were recorded for the 26 simulations, with kinetic data at the target inoculum concentration. The ratios of the median (R m ؍ median obs / median sim ) and 90% range (R r ؍ 90% range obs /90% range sim ) were calculated. Most R m and R r values were greater than one, indicating that the simulated TTDs were smaller and more homogeneous than the observed ones. R r values departed farther from one than R m values. Ratios obtained when simulating 1 spore with 10,000 spores deviated the farthest from one. Neither ratio was significantly different from the other when simulating 1 spore with 100 spores or simulating 100 spores with 10,000 spores. When kinetic data were not available, the percent positive observed at the 95th percentile of the simulated TTDs was obtained. These simulation results confirmed that the assumption of independence between spores is not valid.Mathematical modeling is an analytical approach using calculus, algebra, and basic probability theories to obtain precise numerical values for the variables in question (11,19). Under certain conditions, when the predictor variables are known and the relationship between the predictor and response variables is simple, analytical models are an ideal solution. However, this ideal approach quickly breaks down when faced with the complexity of the real world. It is rare to be able to accurately describe a biological procedure by mathematical equations. In addition, even if it is possible to construct equations, more often than not, these equations are not solvable without using numerical iterations or making considerable approximations of the real problem. Finally, every measurement in the real world is associated with a variance and a particular degree of uncertainty (5, 18) that cannot be described by an analytical model.A simulation approach is much more suitable than an analytical approach when dealing with complicated problems with an inherent variance. Instead of using a model to calculate an exact result for a variable, a simulation calculates a value many times over, each time assuming new values for each input, to give an estimation of the real value (15). Monte Carlo simulation is the most widely used simulation method in biology (4, 16) and has been used to study the mechanism in such biochemical procedures as cell cycle control (9) and...