A More Timely House Price Index

Anenberg, Elliot; Laufer, Steven

doi:10.1162/rest_a_00634

Cited by 41 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The authors concluded that prices/values obtained at different stages of the selling process are comparable only if the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of flats are considered, making them useful for building price indexes. In another study, Anenberg and Laufer (2017) came to interesting conclusions. Using the information on two million offers from the nine largest U.S. cities in the years 2008-2012, the authors showed that the asking price-based index accurately forecasts the Case-Shiller index (based on the repeat sales method and asking prices) with a few-month lead.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 89%

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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Using a unique dataset of 4,5 million offers, the housing cycles in 18 Polish provincial capitals were identified between 2000 and 2020 before and after the financial crisis. Differences in the course of the cycles depending on spatial diversity are presented, as well as differences in the strength of decreases and increases in individual phases. The examined housing markets in Poland have experienced significant variability in the extent of their cycles. One complete cycle was found in each of the analysed cities. Its average duration was approximately 12 years. In this cycle, residential prices (in real terms) increased by 88% on average, in the upward phase by 158%, while in the downward phase, they decreased by 27% in the cities under study. A correlation was found that implies that the higher the price rises in the upward period, the higher the price correction ensues in the cycle’s downward phase. Moreover, the similarity in fluctuations was present in the metropolitan markets in local housing markets, especially before the financial crisis. Apartment prices continued to grow by 2.9% on average in the real term during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 89%

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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“…This reluctance by sellers to reduce prices during a market down-turn also implies that list-prices are not always good indicators of market turning points (Knight et al 1994). This asymmetry in list-price reaction to underlying market tendency probably explains why the literature provides a mixed verdict on whether list prices are good leading indicators for transaction prices: While some researchers find them to be good leading indicators (see e.g., Ahmed et al 2016;Anenberg and Laufer 2017;Lyons 2019) others find the opposite (Kolbe et al 2021).…”

Section: List-data Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Real Estate Indicators during the COVID-19 Crisis

Pfeifer

Steurer

2022

Journal of Official Statistics

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In this article we construct a number of early housing-market indicators from daily-scraped list-price data and investigate how they inform on housing-market trends prior to the release of official transaction data. We minimize the impact of non-market conform list prices by our data selection- and cleaning routine and thereby improve the overlap between list and transaction data. In addition to some well-known real-estate indicators (price and rent indices, price-rent ratios, market volume, time-on-market, and market turnover) we develop a new market sentiment indicator which we construct from the direction and frequency of online price changes for individual listings. We then use this group of indicators to investigate how housing markets in London and Vienna react to the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. For London these indicators show high volatility during much of 2020 and we find that the sales and rental markets drift apart: The sales market shows an overall positive price trend, while the rental market becomes significantly weaker after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. For Vienna we find that all indicators signal positive market developments for the first eight months after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…Survey data also tend to be backward-looking and suffer from participation biases because only some households/firms surveyed will respond. Finally, list prices from online platforms are typically higher than transaction prices, subject to revision over time, and often do not lead to actual transactions (Shimizu et al, 2016;Anenberg and Laufer 2017;Lyons 2019;Kolbe et al, 2021). lower prices (Deng and Liu 2009;Edelstein et al, 2012), choose the most attractive location, or make last-minute changes to floor plans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warning: Some transaction prices can be detrimental to your house price index

Hill

Pfeifer

Steurer

et al. 2023

Review of Income and Wealth

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There is a broad consensus in international statistical organizations such as Eurostat and the International Monetary Fund that house price indices (HPIs) should be constructed using transaction data. We show here how transaction data for new‐built properties can undermine the timeliness of hedonic HPIs when new‐built properties are pre‐sold during the planning or building stage, but entered into deed books only once the projects are completed. As a consequence, HPIs for new‐builds will include stale transaction prices. We investigate this issue for two Polish cities (Warsaw and Poznan) and find that HPIs for existing properties lead indices for new‐builds by up to 2 years. This lag can dramatically distort National HPIs. The lag also has implications for the flagship measure of inflation in Europe—the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)—since it is planned to include owner‐occupied housing in the HICP using a transactions HPI specifically for new‐builds. We show that the timeliness issue disappears when preliminary agreements on new‐builds are used instead of transactions in the compilation of an HPI.

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A More Timely House Price Index

Cited by 41 publications

References 24 publications

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Early Real Estate Indicators during the COVID-19 Crisis

Warning: Some transaction prices can be detrimental to your house price index

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