A multi‐data set analysis of variability and change in Arctic spring snow cover extent, 1967–2008

Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Wang, Libo

doi:10.1029/2010jd013975

Cited by 247 publications

(264 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Particular causes are difficult to implicate, but these sorts of occurrences are consistent with the analysis and mechanism presented in this study. As the Arctic sea-ice cover continues to disappear and the snow cover melts ever earlier over vast regions of Eurasia and North America [Brown et al, 2010], it is expected that large-scale circulation patterns throughout the northern hemisphere will become increasingly influenced by Arctic Amplification. Gradual warming of the globe may not be noticed by most, but everyone -either directly or indirectly -will be affected to some degree by changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes

Francis

Vavrus

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

1,496

1,029

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Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower‐tropospheric temperatures and in 1000‐to‐500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north‐south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper‐level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea‐ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high‐latitude land. Slower progression of upper‐level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid‐latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes

Francis

Vavrus

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

1,496

1,029

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“…The reliance on individual datasets such as the NOAA-CDR, however, makes trends prone to uncertainty due to the inherent uncertainties in an individual dataset (for 405 instance, see Derksen, 2013 andMudryk et al, 2017 for issues related to the NOAA-CDR). It is clear that consideration of multiple datasets either as a means of showing the range of trends from individual datasets , for calculating confidence intervals around an individual dataset (Brown and Robinson, 2011), or to benchmark other datasets (Brown et al, 2010;Hori et al, 2017) is a more robust approach. However, in this case, we acknowledge that the availability and use of multiple datasets came at the sacrifice of time series length (the NOAA record extends back to 1967, 410 whereas passive microwave satellite data and reanalyses such as ERA-interim only begin in 1979).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)

Mudryk

Derksen

Howell

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, 15 and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-20 year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last eight years. The multimodel consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10% per decade (or 15-30% in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10% per decade (30% in total) are projected across southern Canada. 25 IntroductionSeasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice influence short term weather and longer term climate by altering the surface energy budget, modifying both the surface reflectivity and thermal conductivity (Serreze et al., 2007;Flanner et al., 2011;Gouttevin et al., 2012). Snow also influences freshwater storage through soil moisture recharge and surface runoff (Barnett et al., 2005). Understanding historical and projected future changes to snow and ice is essential both to assess the importance of 30 physical changes to the climate system, and to thus assess their consequent impacts and risks. A previous assessment of the The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10. 5194/tc-2017-198 Manuscript under review for journal The Cryosphere Previous studies have shown that warming temperatures, which are amplified at higher latitudes as a natural response to increasing greenhouse gases (Serreze et al., 2009;Pithan and Mauritsen, 2014), reduce the spatial extent and mass of snow 45 and ice (for example, see Derksen et al., 2012). In reality, the linkage between warming temperatures and snow/sea ice reduction is more nuanced due to: regional and seasonal climate variability: for example, surface temperature warming across Canadian land and ocean areas is not uniform in space and time, but contains regional and seasonal variability driven by natural climatic processes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other...

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“…According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013), the spring (March-April) SCE for the Northern Hemisphere 1 3 has decreased on average by 1.6 % per decade for the 1967-2012 period. Shrinkage of spring SCE over the last few decades has also been reported for the Arctic region (Brown et al 2010), East Europe (Bednorz 2004), and the Northern Hemisphere (Brown 2000;Brown and Robinson 2011). Observations of SWE are generally shorter than those of SCE and are available from satellite-based passive microwave measurements and ground measuring stations since 1979 to present over the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%